***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 15.9 15.7 13.3 0.7 54.0 56.4 12.5 15.6 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.3 13.2 0.7 54.7 56.7 13.1 15.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 15.9 15.8 13.4 0.6 52.4 55.7 13.8 15.5 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.2 11.4 0.5 51.9 54.7 5.0 6.7 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 16.0 15.8 11.7 0.6 51.8 54.8 13.6 15.6 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 15.0 14.9 9.9 0.7 52.7 55.6 12.2 14.4 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 15.0 15.1 13.2 0.8 54.5 57.2 13.1 14.6 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 3.5 3.3 10.2 0.6 53.4 54.8 1.4 2.9 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 15.9 16.0 12.2 0.6 52.2 54.8 13.3 15.5 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 16.1 15.8 11.0 0.6 52.3 54.4 13.0 15.7 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 15.8 16.3 11.4 0.6 53.1 55.0 12.9 15.3 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 14.7 15.2 11.1 0.7 54.0 55.5 12.0 14.1 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.2 10.6 0.7 53.8 55.7 13.0 15.3 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 16.5 16.5 12.3 0.6 52.3 54.8 13.5 16.1 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.6 11.6 0.5 54.0 54.3 13.5 14.5 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.0 11.1 0.7 52.8 55.3 13.5 15.4 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 14.1 14.6 13.0 0.8 55.6 57.0 12.3 13.8 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.5 10.3 0.5 50.8 54.1 12.6 15.4 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 15.3 15.6 13.4 0.7 54.2 56.2 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.2 7.6 0.4 51.7 53.5 7.6 9.4 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 15.9 16.0 12.9 0.6 52.9 55.1 13.4 15.5 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.9 13.1 0.7 55.3 55.9 13.1 15.1 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 15.8 15.7 13.3 0.6 52.5 55.4 13.5 15.4 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 16.4 16.0 12.1 0.6 51.2 54.6 13.2 16.0 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 15.0 15.5 11.8 0.7 54.0 55.9 13.2 14.5 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 14.9 15.2 10.3 0.7 54.5 55.6 12.7 14.2 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 15.5 15.4 12.6 0.7 54.5 56.7 13.8 15.1 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 15.2 14.7 11.5 0.5 52.1 54.2 13.7 14.5 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.6 9.3 0.6 51.9 54.7 7.6 9.9 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 15.3 15.2 13.3 0.7 53.5 56.7 13.5 14.9 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------