***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9.9 11.6 10.1 -0.9 43.8 41.8 8.8 12.6 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 10.1 10.1 10.1 -0.8 41.5 42.2 9.6 12.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 10.5 10.9 10.1 -1.0 41.8 41.1 8.9 13.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 1.9 1.8 8.1 -1.0 41.7 42.2 0.3 5.9 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 10.0 10.9 8.3 -1.1 40.2 41.1 8.8 13.4 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 8.3 10.0 6.2 -1.4 40.3 39.0 7.2 12.8 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.9 10.2 10.0 -0.8 41.4 42.4 9.4 12.1 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -2.3 -0.8 6.7 -1.5 36.3 38.7 -1.3 0.8 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 9.8 10.0 8.8 -1.2 39.4 40.5 8.6 13.4 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 9.3 8.9 7.5 -1.4 36.9 39.2 8.2 13.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 9.5 9.4 7.9 -1.3 38.1 40.3 8.9 13.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 8.5 7.7 7.5 -1.4 37.1 39.2 7.3 12.6 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 9.7 10.2 7.0 -1.4 39.6 39.2 8.8 13.4 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 10.6 10.2 8.8 -1.3 38.9 40.3 9.9 13.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 9.9 11.3 8.4 -0.9 43.5 42.9 9.1 13.1 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 10.0 11.2 7.5 -1.3 39.9 39.9 8.9 14.1 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.8 9.7 9.9 -0.8 40.5 42.8 9.2 10.9 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 9.1 8.9 6.8 -1.5 37.5 38.4 8.6 12.9 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 10.3 9.7 10.2 -0.9 41.4 41.8 9.4 12.7 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 3.9 5.0 4.3 -1.6 38.7 37.7 3.9 7.3 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 10.1 11.1 9.5 -1.1 40.5 41.0 8.8 13.1 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 10.4 9.8 10.0 -0.9 39.4 42.1 9.7 12.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 10.6 10.6 10.0 -1.0 40.4 41.4 9.6 13.1 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 9.9 10.3 8.6 -1.3 38.8 39.6 9.5 13.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 9.7 11.3 8.6 -0.9 43.4 42.2 8.6 12.6 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 9.0 9.5 6.8 -1.3 39.1 39.2 8.5 12.3 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 10.2 11.5 9.3 -0.9 44.1 42.3 9.0 12.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 9.9 10.5 8.2 -1.0 41.7 41.8 8.6 13.7 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 3.6 5.9 5.8 -1.5 40.0 38.8 3.5 7.3 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 10.2 10.2 10.2 -0.9 42.4 41.8 9.1 12.3 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------