***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 8.0 7.8 6.9 -2.2 28.2 30.5 8.6 10.6 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 7.8 9.0 7.1 -1.9 30.8 31.9 9.1 10.3 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 7.8 8.4 6.7 -2.4 27.4 29.0 9.6 11.0 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -0.5 0.9 4.8 -2.3 31.1 31.2 1.1 2.7 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 7.7 7.8 4.7 -2.8 28.2 28.0 8.6 11.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 6.4 5.8 2.8 -3.4 20.6 22.6 7.6 9.3 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 7.7 8.8 7.1 -1.9 31.5 32.6 8.9 9.9 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 -2.1 -2.7 2.9 -3.5 22.0 22.8 -1.3 0.9 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 7.8 8.6 5.1 -3.0 27.2 27.1 9.2 10.7 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 7.6 7.5 3.7 -3.4 23.9 24.3 8.6 11.0 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 7.3 7.7 4.2 -3.2 26.7 25.7 8.3 10.7 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 7.3 7.7 3.8 -3.5 22.5 23.0 8.6 10.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 8.2 8.0 3.3 -3.5 20.3 22.1 9.6 10.8 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 7.7 8.1 4.9 -3.1 24.0 26.3 9.3 11.8 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.4 8.4 5.5 -1.9 33.8 34.3 8.4 10.2 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 8.2 8.2 3.9 -3.2 24.1 24.7 9.6 11.2 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 7.6 8.6 7.0 -1.7 33.7 33.4 8.4 9.8 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 7.2 6.6 2.9 -3.5 21.0 23.6 9.0 10.6 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 8.0 8.1 7.0 -2.1 28.8 30.8 8.7 10.6 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 3.5 3.2 0.8 -3.4 21.3 22.3 4.2 7.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 8.2 8.1 6.1 -2.6 27.7 28.7 9.3 11.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 8.1 8.6 7.0 -1.9 31.8 32.2 8.9 11.1 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 7.8 8.2 6.6 -2.4 26.2 29.0 9.5 11.0 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 7.9 8.0 4.8 -3.2 23.3 25.7 9.9 11.2 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 7.3 8.0 5.3 -2.2 30.7 31.0 8.1 10.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 7.9 7.4 3.2 -3.5 18.9 21.5 9.7 10.6 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 7.9 8.8 6.2 -2.2 30.0 30.6 8.9 10.2 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 7.3 8.5 5.0 -2.4 30.2 30.8 8.7 10.7 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 2.9 1.9 2.0 -3.5 20.5 23.8 3.3 6.4 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 8.1 8.1 7.1 -2.0 29.3 31.2 8.6 10.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------