***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 6.6 7.1 6.9 -2.4 31.8 30.7 7.4 11.3 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 5.0 7.4 6.9 -2.3 32.1 31.0 7.7 9.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 5.2 7.9 6.8 -2.9 29.4 29.2 8.6 11.3 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 -0.6 0.0 4.7 -2.3 33.2 32.7 0.0 3.7 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 5.7 7.7 5.3 -2.9 30.4 29.8 8.6 11.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 6.1 5.8 3.6 -2.9 24.3 27.3 7.1 10.0 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 5.4 7.2 6.9 -2.2 32.9 32.0 7.2 9.2 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 93 7 0 100 -3.6 -2.9 3.5 -3.4 26.2 26.0 -1.1 0.5 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 5.5 7.5 6.0 -3.1 28.2 28.5 9.4 11.9 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 5.5 7.4 4.4 -3.5 26.9 26.7 9.1 11.2 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 5.7 8.1 5.1 -3.1 28.7 28.3 8.7 11.8 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 86 14 0 100 6.1 7.6 4.5 -3.1 27.1 26.8 8.5 10.7 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 7.4 7.3 4.7 -3.0 24.4 26.2 8.9 11.2 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 4.4 7.0 5.7 -3.5 28.3 28.2 9.7 11.4 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.7 6.2 6.6 -1.8 33.5 34.4 6.1 8.5 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 7.0 8.5 5.0 -2.9 27.5 28.3 9.4 11.7 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 4.9 6.7 6.8 -2.1 32.8 32.4 6.7 9.1 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 97 3 0 100 4.6 5.8 3.4 -3.7 25.2 25.0 9.5 10.7 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 94 6 0 100 4.0 7.4 6.9 -2.6 30.9 30.0 7.5 10.0 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 1.5 2.3 1.0 -3.8 22.4 22.5 4.4 5.7 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 97 3 0 100 5.6 8.0 6.6 -3.0 29.2 29.1 8.9 11.5 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 90 10 0 100 4.3 6.8 6.9 -2.3 32.0 31.5 6.9 9.9 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 4.5 7.7 6.8 -2.9 29.2 29.0 9.2 11.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 97 3 0 100 5.2 6.4 5.3 -3.5 27.5 27.0 9.6 12.3 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 6.4 7.3 5.7 -2.4 32.8 31.9 7.3 9.5 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 6.9 7.7 3.9 -2.8 23.6 25.8 8.8 10.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 7.3 8.0 6.3 -2.4 32.6 31.4 8.1 10.6 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 4.6 6.3 5.5 -2.3 31.7 32.1 6.5 9.1 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 94 6 0 100 0.7 1.9 2.5 -3.7 24.8 24.4 4.5 6.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 82 18 0 100 5.3 7.6 7.0 -2.4 32.0 30.7 7.7 9.5 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------