***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 0.5 1.0 0.8 -0.6 34.3 39.0 0.9 1.9 2.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 1.6 0.8 0.8 -0.5 37.4 39.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.7 2.5 0.7 -0.5 34.6 38.7 2.5 3.5 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -2.5 -3.1 -1.5 -0.3 38.3 41.6 -3.3 -3.0 -2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -0.6 0.6 -1.4 -0.5 36.1 39.3 0.4 0.9 1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 -1.0 -1.0 -3.3 -0.7 31.8 38.1 -0.9 0.2 0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 1.8 1.0 0.8 -0.5 36.4 39.3 0.9 1.4 2.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -6.5 -6.7 -3.4 -1.1 30.1 33.5 -6.6 -5.6 -4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 0.7 0.8 -0.9 -0.6 33.3 37.1 0.7 1.9 2.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 0.5 0.9 -2.8 -1.0 30.2 34.1 1.0 1.6 2.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 0.7 0.8 -1.7 -0.6 34.5 38.4 0.7 1.6 2.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 -0.9 -0.8 -2.3 -0.9 29.9 34.9 -0.6 0.4 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 0.4 -0.2 -2.6 -0.9 26.7 34.2 0.4 1.5 1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 2.3 1.5 -1.1 -0.7 36.1 36.0 1.4 2.0 3.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 2.0 1.2 -0.6 -0.1 39.6 43.5 0.9 1.8 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 0.9 1.2 -2.0 -0.6 32.1 38.2 1.2 1.9 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 2.0 0.9 0.7 -0.5 37.7 38.9 0.9 1.7 2.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 0.2 -1.4 -3.8 -1.1 31.4 33.3 -1.2 0.0 0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 1.7 1.0 0.7 -0.5 36.9 39.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -2.6 -3.9 -5.7 -1.3 32.1 33.0 -3.8 -3.0 -2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 0.3 0.9 0.1 -0.5 33.5 38.1 0.8 1.9 2.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 1.6 0.6 0.7 -0.6 38.1 38.5 0.4 1.2 2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 1.5 0.6 0.4 -0.5 35.1 39.0 0.6 1.2 1.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 1.7 0.8 -1.4 -0.8 33.8 35.3 0.8 1.4 2.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 2.1 1.0 -0.6 -0.4 36.7 40.7 0.8 1.9 2.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 -0.1 -0.4 -2.6 -1.1 25.5 32.1 0.3 1.2 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 2.2 1.1 0.2 -0.5 34.4 39.5 1.0 2.1 2.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 0.7 -0.2 -1.2 -0.4 36.0 40.9 -0.4 0.4 1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -1.2 -2.4 -4.4 -1.0 33.9 35.6 -2.4 -1.7 -0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 2.2 1.2 0.8 -0.5 36.3 39.2 1.1 1.8 2.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------