***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.7 4.5 3.3 0.3 51.2 54.0 2.8 4.4 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 3.5 3.3 3.1 0.3 53.6 53.8 2.6 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.7 3.0 0.3 52.7 54.7 4.9 5.6 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 0.1 -0.2 0.9 0.4 53.2 55.8 -1.9 -0.4 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.3 1.0 0.4 50.5 55.2 1.8 3.2 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 0.1 2.2 -0.7 0.6 52.4 58.2 1.3 2.1 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.1 3.9 3.2 0.3 51.4 54.1 2.6 3.8 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -5.5 -4.0 -0.8 0.1 45.6 53.7 -4.3 -3.6 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.1 1.5 0.3 49.6 54.2 2.6 4.1 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 4.5 3.4 -0.2 0.1 45.9 52.9 2.4 4.2 4.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.8 0.7 0.4 49.9 55.8 2.3 3.8 4.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 0.5 2.0 0.3 0.3 49.3 55.8 1.4 2.0 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 1.4 3.2 -0.1 0.4 48.2 56.8 2.0 3.4 4.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.8 1.4 0.2 51.1 52.9 2.9 3.8 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.1 4.0 1.4 0.4 53.5 56.2 3.1 3.8 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.5 0.3 0.4 50.4 56.5 3.1 4.4 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.8 3.7 3.0 0.3 52.4 53.3 3.0 3.6 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 0.4 1.5 -1.0 0.1 45.5 51.7 0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 3.8 3.6 3.0 0.3 53.9 53.9 2.7 3.5 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -2.7 -1.9 -2.8 0.1 44.0 51.8 -2.4 -1.0 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 4.2 3.7 2.4 0.3 49.6 54.4 2.6 3.7 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.4 2.9 0.2 52.1 52.8 2.3 3.3 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.2 2.7 0.3 53.5 54.2 2.2 3.2 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 4.0 3.6 1.1 0.2 50.0 53.4 2.0 3.6 4.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.0 1.8 0.5 52.4 56.1 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.1 3.0 0.1 0.4 49.1 56.8 1.9 3.1 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.6 2.6 0.4 51.6 55.2 3.4 4.6 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.7 1.1 0.4 52.7 55.7 1.6 2.5 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -1.3 -0.1 -1.6 0.2 44.8 52.8 -0.4 0.4 2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.2 3.2 0.3 53.2 54.2 3.0 3.7 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------