***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 -0.7 0.4 0.7 -1.0 36.8 38.1 -0.1 1.3 2.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 -0.6 0.4 0.7 -0.8 38.1 39.8 0.0 1.5 2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 1.4 2.2 0.5 -0.9 35.2 38.3 2.1 3.6 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 -4.8 -5.5 -1.6 -0.8 32.6 38.8 -5.4 -1.8 0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 -1.0 -0.7 -1.6 -1.0 30.3 37.3 -0.4 0.5 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 -1.2 -1.7 -3.8 -1.4 23.7 34.5 -0.9 -0.1 0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 -0.5 0.4 0.7 -0.8 38.6 39.4 -0.1 1.8 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 -8.3 -8.1 -3.5 -1.5 27.8 34.2 -7.9 -5.8 -3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 -0.2 0.4 -1.2 -1.2 29.5 36.2 0.6 1.9 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 0.3 0.3 -3.0 -1.5 28.2 33.9 0.4 1.6 2.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 -0.1 -0.1 -1.9 -1.1 30.0 36.3 0.0 1.0 2.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 -1.2 -1.3 -2.4 -1.3 28.5 35.5 -1.1 0.0 1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 -0.1 -0.3 -3.0 -1.4 24.5 34.0 0.0 1.2 2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 0.8 1.2 -1.2 -1.1 31.9 36.3 1.2 2.3 3.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 -0.1 0.4 -1.0 -0.7 33.4 39.4 0.3 2.1 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 0.7 0.4 -2.3 -1.1 29.5 36.1 0.7 2.2 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 0.0 0.7 0.6 -0.8 39.6 39.4 0.3 2.1 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 -1.6 -1.3 -4.1 -1.6 28.5 32.9 -1.0 -0.2 0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 -0.7 0.1 0.6 -0.8 36.9 39.7 0.0 1.5 3.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 -4.2 -4.1 -5.8 -1.6 31.8 35.3 -4.0 -2.9 -2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 -1.0 31.7 37.4 0.2 1.8 2.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 -0.7 0.5 0.6 -0.8 37.9 39.4 0.3 0.9 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 -0.8 0.3 0.4 -0.8 35.2 39.2 0.2 0.8 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 -0.1 0.3 -1.7 -1.2 29.6 35.1 0.5 1.1 2.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 -0.5 0.1 -0.8 -0.8 34.1 38.5 0.1 1.2 2.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 0.0 0.0 -2.8 -1.4 28.0 34.6 0.4 1.3 1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 -0.5 0.5 0.0 -0.9 36.1 38.3 0.0 1.9 2.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 -1.3 -1.2 -1.4 -0.8 32.0 38.4 -1.2 0.1 1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 -3.6 -3.7 -4.7 -1.6 30.1 34.2 -3.5 -1.4 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 -0.1 0.7 0.7 -0.8 37.0 39.3 0.0 2.0 3.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------