***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 -1.5 -0.3 -1.0 -1.8 28.9 29.9 -0.2 0.7 1.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 -1.2 -0.4 -1.2 -1.8 30.0 30.4 -0.3 0.3 1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 0.4 1.0 -1.3 -1.8 29.5 29.7 1.2 2.4 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 -6.1 -5.4 -3.4 -1.6 28.4 31.7 -5.0 -3.9 -1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 -2.0 -2.2 -3.6 -1.9 25.3 29.0 -1.7 -0.9 0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 -3.1 -3.8 -5.8 -2.8 16.9 23.3 -2.4 -1.1 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 -0.8 -0.6 -1.2 -1.8 29.1 30.1 -0.3 0.5 1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 -8.7 -8.8 -5.9 -2.9 21.3 23.2 -8.1 -6.4 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 -1.1 -1.3 -3.2 -2.1 23.9 27.6 -0.3 0.3 1.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 -1.6 -1.5 -5.3 -2.8 22.4 24.1 -0.6 0.5 2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 -1.8 -1.8 -3.9 -2.2 24.0 27.2 -0.7 0.3 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 -3.1 -3.2 -4.5 -2.6 21.2 24.0 -2.0 -1.2 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 -2.7 -3.3 -5.1 -2.9 16.9 21.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 -1.0 -1.2 -3.4 -2.3 24.6 26.8 0.0 1.3 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 -0.4 -0.3 -2.5 -1.2 31.8 33.7 -0.3 1.1 1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 -1.0 -0.9 -4.3 -2.3 22.0 25.8 -0.1 0.3 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 -0.8 -0.2 -1.2 -1.7 29.6 31.0 -0.1 0.5 1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 -3.6 -3.1 -6.5 -3.1 21.4 22.8 -2.1 -1.1 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 -1.3 -0.5 -1.2 -1.8 30.3 30.4 -0.4 0.6 1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 -6.4 -7.1 -8.4 -3.4 19.4 22.3 -5.4 -3.1 -2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 -1.5 -1.2 -1.9 -1.9 27.8 29.3 -0.9 0.0 0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 -1.8 -0.4 -1.2 -1.8 29.9 30.6 -0.4 0.0 1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 -1.6 -1.0 -1.6 -1.7 27.9 29.7 -0.8 0.4 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 -1.7 -1.8 -3.8 -2.4 24.5 25.9 -0.6 0.2 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 -1.0 -0.7 -2.7 -1.7 28.1 29.6 -0.6 0.3 1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 -1.9 -2.5 -4.8 -2.8 15.8 21.6 -1.4 0.1 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 -0.9 -0.4 -1.9 -1.9 27.7 29.1 -0.4 0.7 1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 -2.6 -2.1 -3.1 -1.6 27.8 31.0 -1.8 -1.3 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 -5.2 -5.1 -7.1 -3.1 22.3 23.9 -3.7 -2.6 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 -0.7 -0.3 -1.1 -1.8 29.9 30.2 -0.1 0.5 1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------