***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 96 4 100 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.2 47.7 48.1 -1.1 0.2 3.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 97 3 100 0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.2 43.6 45.3 -1.1 0.4 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 94 6 100 2.6 2.1 0.4 0.3 46.9 47.1 1.1 2.5 3.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 -4.0 -5.1 -1.9 0.6 42.6 45.9 -5.4 -4.4 -1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 -0.1 -0.8 -1.3 0.6 43.9 45.8 -1.3 -0.3 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 -1.0 -1.3 -3.0 0.7 50.1 51.1 -2.8 -1.3 0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 97 3 100 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 46.9 46.9 -0.6 0.7 1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -5.3 -7.8 -3.5 -0.1 35.7 39.2 -8.1 -5.9 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 1.4 0.6 -0.9 0.6 43.9 46.0 -0.7 0.9 2.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 0.8 0.0 -2.6 0.2 39.0 41.8 -0.5 0.3 1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 0.6 0.0 -1.7 0.5 42.1 45.3 -0.8 0.1 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 -0.2 -1.4 -2.5 0.0 36.6 40.3 -2.3 -0.6 0.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 0.2 -0.4 -2.3 0.2 41.3 43.4 -1.0 -0.2 1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 1.1 0.7 -1.0 0.2 39.1 41.5 0.4 0.8 2.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 0.7 0.5 -0.4 0.9 50.5 50.8 -0.8 0.5 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 1.2 0.5 -1.9 0.5 42.2 45.9 -0.4 0.8 1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 99 1 100 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 43.2 44.2 -0.6 0.8 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 -0.9 -2.3 -3.5 0.2 38.2 41.7 -2.9 -1.2 -0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 95 5 100 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 43.7 45.5 -0.9 0.6 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 -3.9 -4.6 -5.9 -0.2 40.3 41.3 -6.4 -4.3 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 44.3 46.1 -0.7 0.5 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 98 2 100 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.0 42.4 42.7 -1.1 0.8 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 0.5 -0.5 0.1 0.2 45.3 46.4 -1.2 0.3 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 0.4 -0.3 -1.3 0.3 39.3 42.4 -0.5 0.1 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 0.5 45.1 46.8 -0.5 0.2 0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 0.7 -1.0 -2.8 -0.5 33.7 37.4 -1.0 0.1 1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 96 4 100 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 46.7 47.6 -0.8 0.3 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 -0.8 -1.3 -1.2 0.6 44.2 46.2 -2.3 -1.1 0.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 -1.5 -3.0 -4.1 0.4 42.0 44.3 -3.6 -1.7 -0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 95 5 100 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.2 46.6 46.7 -0.6 1.0 1.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------