***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 15.8 16.4 35.6 66.4 25.3 29.7 23.5 26.6 40.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 19.0 18.0 33.2 68.9 27.7 32.1 18.8 27.5 32.4 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 19.7 18.3 34.9 66.0 25.2 28.8 29.2 38.4 50.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 27.4 26.4 39.7 64.4 24.8 28.1 30.2 39.6 51.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 24.6 31.2 38.3 65.6 26.1 27.1 32.5 37.0 45.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 22.3 22.4 42.7 70.5 29.2 29.5 24.0 35.9 44.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 18.1 20.7 32.6 68.3 27.6 31.9 23.2 26.9 34.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 54.9 51.6 42.6 69.8 28.1 28.9 54.4 71.1 83.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 21.4 23.0 39.5 67.2 26.4 27.5 25.0 36.4 46.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 29.0 30.2 43.2 69.8 27.9 28.5 32.0 37.3 54.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 24.6 24.9 37.6 67.0 28.2 28.2 26.9 40.5 47.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 24.6 23.7 37.7 68.6 28.1 28.9 28.2 36.8 44.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 24.4 27.2 41.9 70.0 29.0 28.7 29.9 40.2 53.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 35.0 37.3 48.4 73.1 30.5 32.1 40.8 55.4 67.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 13.7 15.8 36.9 64.5 29.1 29.9 20.6 40.3 58.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 26.1 26.5 38.9 67.6 28.5 28.3 26.8 35.6 41.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 16.7 18.8 32.4 67.9 30.8 31.8 19.1 22.5 32.6 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 24.8 31.8 45.9 70.7 29.5 29.0 32.7 37.8 53.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 20.9 24.5 34.1 68.7 27.0 31.6 29.0 33.3 38.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 27.3 27.1 53.9 70.4 26.1 29.1 30.8 37.8 47.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 21.6 19.4 36.8 65.6 26.0 27.8 27.3 40.3 43.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 18.4 24.5 35.2 70.3 31.8 33.1 24.5 27.2 39.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 22.5 22.7 36.2 68.6 27.5 30.7 27.5 32.3 40.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 28.4 37.9 42.3 69.1 28.8 29.1 39.9 49.2 65.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 19.6 17.7 40.2 65.8 23.1 28.4 22.0 30.2 36.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 16.6 21.2 42.5 70.6 30.2 30.7 23.1 34.1 45.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 19.2 17.1 38.0 67.0 24.4 29.6 25.5 30.3 38.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 15.1 14.5 38.2 65.0 27.3 28.8 16.4 32.6 49.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 39.4 45.0 48.5 71.1 28.7 29.4 47.9 61.3 70.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 18.7 22.3 34.1 69.2 27.8 32.2 24.1 29.7 38.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------