***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 4.0 9.7 10.7 82.7 54.1 46.5 2.1 8.0 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.2 8.9 10.8 90.5 57.9 47.2 2.4 4.5 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.7 6.0 10.0 77.8 54.3 42.8 3.2 5.3 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.4 6.3 10.9 73.5 52.1 40.0 2.8 6.2 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.2 7.8 10.5 75.9 51.8 39.8 3.9 7.8 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.8 8.9 12.3 79.5 48.8 38.5 1.8 9.5 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.3 9.0 10.8 91.0 58.0 47.1 2.4 5.3 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 9.7 18.3 11.9 78.5 50.5 40.2 9.7 18.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.0 7.4 11.0 76.6 50.7 39.2 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.7 12.3 12.2 79.6 50.7 39.8 4.9 12.1 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.2 10.9 10.1 75.8 50.9 39.5 2.4 10.7 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 4.0 9.7 10.4 77.2 50.4 40.5 5.5 9.5 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 4.4 10.5 11.9 78.8 49.3 39.5 4.4 10.8 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 7.4 17.5 14.5 89.9 54.4 44.0 7.9 15.9 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.4 4.5 10.4 71.7 53.2 39.4 0.9 3.1 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.9 9.8 10.7 75.9 49.8 38.9 3.7 9.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.4 7.8 11.1 93.1 58.2 47.2 2.9 6.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 6.1 12.2 13.4 83.9 53.2 40.9 6.6 11.6 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.7 12.2 10.6 86.7 56.4 45.8 1.7 7.7 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.8 9.9 15.4 80.6 51.3 40.4 5.2 8.9 17.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.3 7.3 10.1 76.2 51.9 40.4 4.3 7.1 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.3 11.1 11.9 94.9 57.8 47.7 4.0 8.4 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.4 10.0 10.5 80.8 52.9 42.8 4.0 9.4 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 6.0 13.1 12.4 83.3 53.8 41.4 9.0 11.9 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.1 11.6 81.2 53.5 44.1 4.1 7.8 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.8 9.4 12.3 82.2 55.3 40.1 2.3 6.4 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.2 11.4 84.0 54.2 46.6 2.7 6.0 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.4 3.5 10.6 72.2 51.3 38.9 0.5 3.3 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.7 15.3 14.1 84.5 53.3 41.5 8.7 13.2 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.4 6.6 10.7 87.7 58.6 47.0 1.8 4.8 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------