***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 4.5 5.1 12.9 100.3 58.9 48.0 1.1 3.4 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.4 5.0 12.1 109.5 64.3 50.2 1.1 2.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.0 5.8 12.8 100.9 58.6 47.5 2.2 4.7 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.5 10.0 14.9 101.1 59.2 49.3 3.7 6.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.3 10.9 13.9 98.3 58.6 48.7 4.1 7.9 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.9 9.7 15.5 106.4 62.1 50.3 1.9 5.8 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.6 11.6 106.6 64.1 50.5 1.2 3.3 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.9 19.1 14.3 100.5 60.0 48.9 7.7 15.5 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.8 14.2 96.7 60.0 48.5 4.0 7.7 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.4 15.0 14.8 97.5 59.7 48.5 6.2 10.8 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.8 10.4 13.3 102.0 59.9 49.2 2.5 7.2 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.3 13.2 13.2 105.6 63.3 49.9 4.2 6.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.5 11.7 15.3 109.4 63.5 50.9 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.7 11.2 16.8 105.1 63.4 48.0 4.1 9.0 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 0.5 2.7 14.5 101.5 63.0 49.6 0.5 1.1 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.3 14.3 106.6 61.6 50.6 3.6 5.7 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.5 6.2 11.6 106.9 63.6 51.8 0.3 3.0 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.7 11.9 15.3 96.1 59.9 48.7 3.0 8.7 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.0 6.8 12.7 110.3 64.1 49.5 0.8 2.8 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.8 11.6 18.2 100.5 58.5 49.9 4.0 8.9 13.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.1 8.4 13.4 97.8 60.4 48.0 3.7 7.4 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.4 9.1 12.8 109.2 62.4 51.0 0.6 1.5 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 4.5 6.9 13.8 110.5 63.7 48.7 0.8 2.3 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.5 13.6 14.6 97.1 61.0 47.4 4.5 10.5 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.2 7.3 14.8 100.6 59.1 49.8 1.2 4.8 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.0 9.5 15.4 109.1 62.2 50.8 2.6 6.4 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.3 13.8 100.2 58.9 49.3 1.6 4.2 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.0 6.9 14.6 101.4 61.3 49.4 0.5 2.2 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.2 18.8 16.1 97.8 58.9 49.2 4.5 16.3 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 4.6 6.2 12.4 107.5 62.1 49.2 1.3 3.1 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------