***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.8 10.9 83.9 53.9 44.5 1.0 4.3 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 2.6 1.7 9.3 75.0 51.8 43.1 0.7 1.5 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.0 4.9 10.7 78.7 52.5 42.3 1.9 4.5 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.2 12.0 76.6 54.1 41.8 4.6 7.1 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.0 4.8 12.0 80.5 51.5 42.6 0.9 4.4 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.8 4.0 12.0 79.5 51.0 43.1 1.3 4.0 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 3.7 2.4 9.1 75.9 52.1 43.4 0.8 2.2 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.2 12.7 13.2 85.0 51.9 43.4 6.6 12.5 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 1.6 3.4 12.3 80.7 51.5 42.2 1.7 3.4 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.3 5.0 13.0 83.6 53.4 43.5 1.4 5.0 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.3 6.0 11.8 79.5 51.6 41.7 1.2 5.9 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 1.5 3.8 11.7 82.1 50.2 42.4 0.3 3.7 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.4 12.1 81.0 50.1 42.6 1.6 5.4 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 2.5 7.1 14.5 86.5 54.9 45.3 3.0 5.2 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.7 10.3 68.5 49.1 39.9 1.4 3.8 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.8 7.7 11.6 80.5 51.6 42.8 1.4 6.2 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.3 2.2 8.6 70.1 50.2 42.5 0.9 2.2 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 1.8 4.7 13.8 84.3 53.0 43.2 1.6 4.1 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.2 4.7 9.6 74.9 52.0 42.6 1.3 4.3 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 1.5 3.7 16.9 85.3 51.0 42.8 1.5 3.6 6.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 1.0 2.6 11.5 80.1 50.3 41.7 1.2 2.6 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 2.5 1.3 9.4 72.1 51.1 42.8 0.6 1.3 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 1.0 3.4 10.4 74.6 53.3 41.4 0.4 2.1 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.4 12.8 79.9 52.3 41.8 1.4 6.3 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.8 12.4 81.4 51.8 43.4 0.8 4.4 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.0 2.0 12.5 80.7 48.5 43.0 0.5 2.1 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.5 5.9 11.7 84.9 53.5 44.7 1.2 5.6 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.3 2.9 10.8 71.8 50.9 40.0 1.6 2.8 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 4.0 8.2 14.9 85.2 53.2 43.4 3.6 8.1 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 1.2 3.8 9.9 79.6 54.5 43.9 0.7 2.5 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------