***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 0.3 0.0 1.0 7.1 5.5 5.3 3.7 6.1 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 0.9 0.0 1.1 8.3 5.9 6.2 6.3 9.4 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 0.5 0.1 1.4 10.3 5.8 6.7 5.1 9.2 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 95 5 0 100 2.3 1.1 2.0 12.1 6.7 7.5 5.4 8.5 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 94 6 0 100 1.9 0.0 1.9 12.3 3.9 6.7 5.4 9.2 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 94 6 0 100 0.5 0.0 2.8 18.4 9.8 10.8 3.2 5.2 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 99 1 0 100 1.2 0.3 1.0 7.9 6.8 6.5 3.1 7.7 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 91 9 0 100 4.0 0.9 3.2 19.7 9.1 10.5 12.8 17.8 27.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 91 9 0 100 1.4 0.0 2.1 14.2 4.4 7.7 4.3 7.5 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 90 10 0 100 2.2 0.1 3.2 19.7 8.3 10.2 8.2 12.9 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 93 7 0 100 0.9 0.0 2.4 15.7 6.7 8.9 3.0 5.8 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 93 7 0 100 1.3 0.0 2.4 16.1 7.6 9.0 3.1 6.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 95 5 0 100 1.4 0.0 2.7 16.7 6.7 8.9 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 2.2 0.2 2.6 15.0 8.1 8.9 9.2 15.2 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 92 8 0 100 0.5 0.0 1.7 12.6 13.9 11.3 0.9 6.0 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 94 6 0 100 0.7 0.0 2.3 14.8 7.4 8.3 1.5 7.3 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 1.3 0.0 1.1 8.8 7.7 7.2 4.1 6.4 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 91 9 0 100 2.0 0.0 3.3 19.8 7.4 10.1 7.3 10.3 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 1.6 0.0 1.2 9.3 5.9 6.3 4.4 7.6 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 92 8 0 100 2.5 0.0 3.4 17.5 7.1 8.7 4.3 10.3 12.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 93 7 0 100 1.8 0.0 1.7 11.9 4.8 7.0 3.0 7.3 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 96 4 0 100 1.2 0.5 1.2 9.3 7.5 6.8 5.5 8.9 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 93 7 0 100 1.9 0.5 1.5 11.5 8.1 7.6 4.6 7.6 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 93 7 0 100 2.3 0.5 2.6 16.7 7.2 9.4 9.1 11.8 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 0.5 0.0 1.4 8.1 3.6 5.1 2.3 8.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 94 6 0 100 0.5 0.0 2.3 14.7 7.1 8.8 2.4 6.1 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 99 1 0 100 0.2 0.0 1.1 6.9 4.9 5.1 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 0.6 0.0 2.1 14.6 11.1 10.5 1.9 3.8 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 92 8 0 100 3.2 0.1 3.3 19.0 7.4 9.6 11.0 15.8 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 97 3 0 100 1.5 0.1 1.1 8.4 6.0 6.0 4.2 7.1 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------