***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 12.0 12.7 11.9 1.1 64.0 61.7 10.9 11.7 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 11.9 12.7 11.8 1.0 62.2 61.7 10.3 11.6 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 12.2 13.5 12.2 1.0 62.7 60.8 10.4 11.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 4.6 5.8 9.6 1.5 66.3 64.6 2.8 4.2 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 12.6 13.7 10.6 1.1 62.9 61.3 10.6 12.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 11.4 11.9 8.6 0.9 60.9 59.1 9.6 11.0 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 11.5 12.1 11.6 0.9 61.4 60.5 9.8 11.2 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 1.4 1.9 9.3 1.1 63.0 61.7 0.5 1.1 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 12.6 13.4 11.3 1.1 63.2 61.4 10.7 12.2 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 12.6 13.1 10.1 1.0 61.8 60.8 10.3 12.2 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 12.5 13.3 10.7 0.9 61.6 59.2 10.6 12.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 11.9 12.2 10.0 1.0 61.9 60.5 10.2 11.5 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 12.8 13.0 9.6 0.7 56.8 57.4 10.9 12.5 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 12.7 13.7 11.4 1.1 62.8 61.4 10.9 12.3 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 48 52 100 13.2 13.6 11.0 1.6 67.2 65.5 10.6 12.1 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 12.9 13.5 10.0 0.9 60.3 59.1 11.2 12.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 11.0 12.2 11.4 1.0 63.3 62.0 9.5 10.7 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 12.3 13.0 9.7 1.2 63.2 62.2 10.0 12.0 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 12.0 13.4 12.0 1.1 63.3 62.0 10.0 11.7 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 8.4 8.2 7.4 1.3 66.9 65.4 6.0 6.9 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 12.7 13.5 12.0 1.0 62.7 61.3 10.4 12.3 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 12.0 13.5 11.7 1.1 65.0 63.2 10.6 11.7 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 12.5 13.7 12.2 1.1 64.5 61.9 10.8 12.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 12.5 13.7 11.3 1.0 62.6 61.1 11.3 12.1 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 12.1 12.9 10.6 1.1 63.5 61.9 10.2 11.9 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 12.0 12.3 8.9 0.7 60.2 59.1 10.5 11.7 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 11.9 13.0 11.2 1.0 62.8 61.1 10.6 11.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 12.4 14.0 10.2 1.5 65.5 64.2 10.8 12.0 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 7.3 8.2 9.0 1.3 64.8 63.5 5.9 7.0 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 11.8 12.7 11.8 1.0 61.8 61.2 9.9 11.4 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------