***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.7 12.1 0.7 57.9 55.6 8.9 11.9 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.5 11.8 0.6 56.1 54.6 9.6 11.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.4 12.5 0.7 57.5 55.4 9.2 13.0 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 5.9 6.0 10.1 1.1 60.1 57.6 0.8 5.0 6.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.9 13.6 10.8 0.8 57.6 56.0 8.8 13.0 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.5 8.8 0.8 59.1 55.6 7.5 12.1 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.6 11.7 0.4 54.2 53.4 9.1 11.6 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.8 1.9 9.3 0.7 56.0 55.5 -1.0 0.9 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.0 11.2 0.8 57.5 55.5 8.4 12.9 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.6 10.1 0.7 56.4 55.4 8.1 13.1 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.6 10.6 0.7 56.4 55.3 8.6 13.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.8 10.1 0.6 55.7 54.8 7.1 12.0 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.1 13.5 9.2 0.5 54.6 53.7 9.3 13.2 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.5 11.1 0.5 54.6 53.6 9.5 13.3 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.6 13.7 10.8 1.2 60.5 58.4 9.7 11.5 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.3 10.0 0.7 56.5 55.2 9.1 13.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.5 11.6 0.4 54.0 53.0 8.8 10.5 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.5 12.8 9.8 0.7 57.0 55.1 8.4 12.6 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.9 12.1 0.6 57.3 55.0 9.3 12.0 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.0 9.0 7.0 0.7 59.0 56.0 3.8 7.1 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.2 11.9 0.8 58.0 55.8 9.0 12.8 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.5 11.7 0.5 55.4 53.3 9.5 11.3 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.1 12.4 0.6 57.6 54.7 9.8 12.7 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.4 11.1 0.7 56.1 54.6 9.0 12.7 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.3 10.6 0.8 59.5 56.3 9.0 12.1 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.0 9.0 0.5 54.4 53.5 8.5 12.5 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.9 11.3 0.6 57.7 55.1 9.0 12.3 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 13.3 14.6 10.4 1.2 60.1 57.9 9.4 12.2 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 8.1 7.8 8.7 0.6 57.2 54.7 2.8 7.2 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.2 11.9 0.6 56.0 55.0 9.4 11.8 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------