***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 11.2 11.3 11.2 1.3 61.6 59.4 8.1 10.5 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 11.3 12.4 11.1 1.3 61.5 59.4 8.3 10.6 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 11.9 12.6 11.6 1.4 61.4 59.4 8.6 11.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 3.0 3.9 8.6 1.5 61.5 61.5 0.1 2.3 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 11.9 12.3 9.9 1.3 59.8 59.4 8.2 11.2 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 10.0 10.8 8.0 1.1 59.2 58.3 6.5 9.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 11.0 11.8 10.9 1.1 60.3 58.2 8.7 10.4 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 1.5 2.5 8.5 1.2 60.4 59.1 -2.0 1.0 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 11.7 12.3 10.7 1.3 60.2 59.0 8.5 10.9 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 11.9 12.5 9.4 1.3 59.7 58.9 8.6 11.1 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 11.6 11.8 10.1 1.1 58.7 57.9 8.5 10.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 11.0 11.1 9.2 1.1 59.8 58.1 8.2 10.4 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 11.2 12.1 9.3 0.9 59.1 57.3 9.7 10.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 12.4 13.1 10.8 1.5 60.4 60.2 9.1 11.8 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 11.7 11.6 10.1 1.4 60.6 60.6 7.6 11.0 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 12.0 12.6 9.4 1.1 58.9 57.8 9.0 11.4 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 11.0 12.0 10.7 1.2 60.9 59.0 7.4 10.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 11.3 12.2 8.9 1.4 61.5 59.9 8.8 10.5 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 11.3 12.5 11.3 1.4 61.2 59.8 8.2 10.6 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.7 8.5 6.7 1.3 62.1 60.7 3.7 6.1 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.9 12.4 11.3 1.3 60.5 59.2 8.9 11.2 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 11.9 13.1 11.0 1.3 61.7 59.7 8.2 11.3 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 12.2 13.4 11.6 1.4 60.3 60.0 8.7 11.6 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 12.2 12.5 10.7 1.4 61.0 59.7 9.3 11.5 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 11.1 11.2 9.9 1.3 61.7 59.4 7.6 10.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 11.5 11.3 8.2 0.9 57.3 57.3 8.9 11.0 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 11.2 12.1 10.5 1.1 61.1 58.5 8.7 10.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 11.7 12.2 9.3 1.4 61.0 60.9 7.9 11.1 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 6.7 7.0 8.2 1.4 62.4 60.5 3.5 5.9 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 11.2 12.0 11.2 1.3 61.2 59.2 8.0 10.5 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------