***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 11.6 11.4 10.2 0.7 50.8 51.4 6.8 11.3 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 9.4 8.9 10.3 0.8 49.1 50.7 7.3 8.9 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 11.0 10.0 10.4 0.3 46.5 47.7 8.1 10.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 93 7 100 3.6 4.1 7.7 1.2 57.4 56.8 0.2 3.3 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 11.4 10.6 8.9 0.4 48.0 49.7 8.4 11.0 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 10.1 9.3 6.7 -0.3 44.6 46.0 7.4 9.6 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 9.0 8.2 10.0 0.7 47.9 50.2 7.3 8.4 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 1.2 1.0 7.7 0.5 50.6 51.9 -1.2 0.8 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 11.8 10.8 10.0 0.3 46.5 49.0 8.6 11.4 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 11.8 11.0 8.4 0.2 45.6 48.2 8.4 11.3 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 12.0 10.9 9.2 0.0 44.8 46.6 8.5 11.5 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 10.6 10.0 8.3 0.3 49.4 50.1 8.3 10.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 11.1 10.3 8.4 -0.3 42.6 44.4 8.6 10.5 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 12.5 11.6 10.1 0.3 45.7 47.9 8.9 12.0 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 8.9 11.0 10.2 1.7 61.5 59.9 5.7 8.5 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 11.7 10.6 8.4 0.1 45.1 47.1 8.8 11.2 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 8.8 8.6 10.0 0.9 51.5 52.7 6.7 8.2 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 11.2 10.6 8.0 0.5 49.5 51.2 8.7 10.7 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 9.8 8.8 10.5 0.7 48.6 50.0 7.3 9.2 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 6.4 6.9 6.5 1.2 61.0 59.8 4.6 5.7 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 11.5 10.6 10.4 0.3 45.6 48.5 8.2 11.2 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 10.2 9.9 10.4 1.0 52.2 53.3 7.0 9.6 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 11.0 10.3 10.6 0.5 47.2 48.7 8.5 10.5 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 12.1 11.5 9.8 0.2 46.0 47.5 8.9 11.6 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 10.3 9.9 9.1 0.6 49.9 52.1 7.5 9.9 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 10.9 10.3 7.1 0.0 47.8 48.5 8.3 10.4 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 10.7 10.3 9.6 0.6 50.3 51.6 7.8 10.3 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 9.9 10.3 8.8 1.2 56.3 55.9 6.9 9.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 6.7 6.6 7.7 0.9 55.7 55.8 4.6 6.1 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 9.5 9.0 10.3 0.7 48.4 50.1 7.3 9.0 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------