***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.0 4.3 4.3 0.7 58.0 57.1 2.5 3.6 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 4.4 3.9 4.1 0.8 60.9 58.3 2.7 3.5 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.4 4.4 0.8 60.1 58.1 4.8 5.6 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 0.5 0.6 1.9 1.0 59.6 59.7 -2.0 0.2 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 3.6 3.5 2.1 0.9 58.6 58.3 2.1 3.3 3.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.6 0.0 1.0 58.4 59.6 1.1 2.2 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 3.9 4.4 4.2 0.8 60.6 58.5 2.6 3.5 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -2.7 -2.5 0.1 0.8 57.4 57.8 -5.0 -3.0 -2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.7 2.4 0.8 59.0 58.2 2.1 4.3 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.3 0.9 0.8 58.4 58.1 2.4 4.0 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 4.1 4.0 1.4 0.8 58.2 57.9 2.7 3.9 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 2.8 2.5 0.8 0.7 56.8 57.0 1.1 2.4 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 3.5 3.7 0.3 0.8 56.4 58.0 2.1 3.1 4.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.8 2.4 0.9 59.0 57.9 2.9 4.1 5.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.5 2.9 1.1 64.0 61.1 2.8 3.7 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.8 0.9 0.8 57.7 58.1 3.1 4.3 4.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.8 4.2 4.2 0.9 61.2 59.1 2.6 3.4 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 1.9 2.3 0.2 0.9 58.2 58.5 0.6 1.6 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 4.6 4.2 4.2 0.8 61.6 58.3 2.7 3.6 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -0.4 -0.8 -1.6 0.8 57.5 58.8 -2.0 -0.9 -0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 4.0 4.2 3.7 0.8 60.2 58.1 1.9 3.7 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 3.3 4.1 4.0 0.9 63.1 59.8 2.0 2.9 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 3.6 4.0 4.1 0.8 61.6 58.2 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 4.0 4.0 2.1 0.9 60.0 58.5 2.0 3.7 4.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.1 3.1 0.8 58.8 58.1 2.2 3.9 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.5 3.3 0.0 0.6 55.3 56.0 1.5 3.1 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.5 3.9 0.7 58.1 57.3 3.3 4.4 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 2.8 3.0 2.1 1.1 62.0 60.8 0.7 2.5 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 1.2 1.1 -0.3 0.9 57.5 58.9 -0.6 0.8 1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.6 4.2 0.7 60.1 58.1 2.8 4.0 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------