***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 -1.6 -0.7 -0.4 -1.3 32.7 32.4 -0.6 0.2 2.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 -1.8 -0.9 -0.4 -1.1 31.6 31.7 -0.7 0.3 1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 2.7 1.2 0.3 -1.0 35.1 34.4 1.1 2.1 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 98 2 100 -4.4 -4.6 -1.3 0.4 46.4 47.1 -5.4 -4.5 -1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 -0.4 -1.0 -0.7 -0.4 42.2 41.7 -1.7 -0.6 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 -1.4 -2.0 -2.4 0.3 45.3 46.8 -2.9 -1.6 0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 -1.8 -0.6 -0.5 -1.2 31.6 31.7 -0.5 0.2 1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 94 6 100 -5.4 -5.7 -2.2 0.4 47.0 47.5 -7.8 -5.5 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 0.9 0.0 -0.7 -0.2 40.1 39.6 -0.8 0.6 1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 92 8 100 0.2 -0.3 -1.8 0.1 43.9 44.1 -0.4 -0.1 1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 93 7 100 0.0 -0.6 -0.9 -0.1 42.4 42.8 -1.2 -0.2 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 -0.9 -1.5 -1.8 -0.3 39.8 39.9 -2.5 -1.2 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 -0.3 -0.9 -1.8 -0.5 39.5 39.0 -1.1 -0.7 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 1.3 0.3 -1.1 -0.4 36.7 35.9 0.2 0.7 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 99 1 100 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.6 47.7 48.4 -1.1 0.9 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 0.7 -0.4 -1.6 -0.4 40.0 40.1 -0.7 0.4 1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 1.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.9 33.5 33.5 -0.5 0.6 1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 95 5 100 -1.4 -2.1 -2.0 0.2 44.1 44.9 -2.8 -1.5 -0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 -1.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.9 33.0 33.1 -0.4 0.6 1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 93 7 100 -4.0 -4.3 -3.2 0.1 45.8 46.1 -5.7 -4.2 -2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 0.6 -0.5 0.0 -0.7 38.3 37.2 -0.6 0.2 1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 1.2 -1.0 0.0 -0.8 34.6 34.4 -1.0 0.8 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 0.5 -1.1 0.0 -0.5 35.2 35.0 -1.2 0.0 1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 39.9 39.2 -0.9 -0.1 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 0.3 -0.8 -0.8 -1.2 34.3 35.0 -0.8 -0.3 1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 0.3 -1.1 -2.2 -0.5 37.7 38.1 -1.3 -0.2 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 -1.6 -0.9 -0.7 -1.4 32.0 32.1 -0.8 0.4 1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 97 3 100 -1.0 -1.3 -0.8 0.3 45.9 46.9 -2.5 -1.0 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 96 4 100 -2.1 -2.3 -2.6 0.5 49.4 49.5 -3.8 -2.2 -0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 -1.2 -0.7 -0.2 -1.1 32.4 32.6 -0.7 0.7 1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------