***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 43.1 49.9 58.1 143.4 79.7 75.1 21.9 24.0 38.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 46.4 65.5 54.6 139.9 79.4 74.3 19.3 27.7 32.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 56.5 67.1 56.9 137.3 80.1 73.4 29.2 35.9 47.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 52.7 64.9 66.5 137.8 83.8 76.2 28.6 36.6 48.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 50.0 60.2 67.0 137.8 82.7 75.0 30.5 35.8 45.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 46.1 49.8 75.1 126.5 77.3 68.8 22.7 36.0 44.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 34.9 42.3 55.4 143.1 79.7 75.2 21.7 25.8 34.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 81.3 91.2 70.0 129.7 78.4 68.7 51.6 65.3 79.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 45.8 54.4 64.1 134.6 79.4 71.6 22.7 32.0 41.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 55.9 66.6 68.9 130.2 78.1 69.1 30.2 36.1 49.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 50.0 62.6 61.7 133.9 81.2 70.5 24.4 30.0 47.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 46.6 57.3 63.0 134.5 80.4 70.4 28.5 34.6 43.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 51.0 60.7 72.3 137.1 84.6 73.4 30.2 37.0 47.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 73.2 70.4 66.9 125.3 72.6 68.3 41.1 51.6 67.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 57.4 67.2 62.3 135.6 81.3 73.8 17.2 39.4 58.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 46.3 57.4 66.2 136.2 84.2 73.2 26.2 34.6 44.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 39.6 48.7 53.2 139.3 79.3 72.8 19.7 24.8 32.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 49.9 56.2 75.7 128.5 76.9 68.9 29.5 36.3 51.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 44.0 47.6 54.1 135.9 77.8 72.6 23.9 34.1 38.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 44.3 49.7 93.7 130.5 79.1 71.2 29.5 36.9 44.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 44.1 55.5 60.3 139.6 84.3 74.1 25.3 36.0 43.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 44.7 55.7 54.0 136.7 77.9 71.5 23.5 27.2 37.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 46.1 50.2 55.1 129.8 77.1 70.4 24.9 31.8 40.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 65.6 73.8 66.1 127.9 76.9 68.9 37.4 48.2 65.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 51.0 68.7 72.1 146.4 85.0 79.2 19.4 24.3 36.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 43.8 58.5 72.2 135.6 83.3 74.2 20.8 32.7 45.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 48.8 54.6 66.7 144.3 81.1 76.6 18.9 28.5 38.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 47.8 57.9 63.8 134.3 81.8 73.7 15.0 29.6 47.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 78.5 84.2 80.4 127.2 75.2 68.3 41.8 60.3 70.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 41.4 48.4 55.3 139.8 79.0 74.4 20.1 28.0 38.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------