***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 13.5 17.3 12.0 149.1 74.3 64.7 1.3 5.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 12.0 18.6 13.4 161.6 80.5 68.5 2.2 4.3 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 14.3 19.9 12.4 145.5 75.3 65.2 2.3 5.1 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.9 14.7 13.6 122.1 71.3 60.6 2.8 6.2 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.4 14.1 13.2 121.0 70.5 59.7 2.0 4.1 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.4 16.5 16.7 109.8 67.2 56.3 1.5 9.7 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 9.6 15.5 13.5 165.3 83.0 68.7 2.4 5.3 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.9 19.3 14.3 112.3 67.1 56.2 8.5 14.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.6 11.4 13.1 121.9 68.7 59.4 1.3 4.2 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.2 15.0 14.4 118.0 68.2 58.3 1.8 6.9 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.3 15.9 12.5 119.5 69.1 58.7 0.6 4.1 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.5 15.4 12.7 113.9 66.5 56.0 1.4 5.9 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.7 14.4 15.0 115.1 64.9 56.3 2.4 9.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 24.6 22.0 16.1 138.2 72.5 63.3 4.9 13.9 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 7.4 12.4 12.9 116.2 68.6 59.4 1.2 4.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.7 14.0 13.6 116.7 67.5 57.7 1.5 7.9 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 13.7 19.7 13.3 160.4 79.3 67.6 3.2 6.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.5 12.9 16.1 118.9 66.4 59.3 3.5 7.5 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 13.8 18.1 13.0 153.3 78.2 67.0 2.2 7.4 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.9 15.3 18.2 113.1 65.0 57.8 4.9 10.8 15.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 12.2 12.9 12.2 135.3 74.1 62.2 3.2 5.2 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 14.8 19.4 13.7 159.5 77.1 66.9 3.4 7.6 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.8 18.4 12.8 143.0 75.6 64.5 2.7 9.1 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 18.9 20.7 14.8 131.2 71.0 62.3 4.3 10.5 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 8.2 13.0 13.8 135.4 74.7 61.4 2.0 6.4 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 6.6 9.9 13.9 105.7 62.6 54.2 1.6 4.8 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.0 15.5 13.4 142.8 74.2 63.1 2.5 4.5 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.0 10.8 13.3 115.0 68.7 59.4 0.5 2.7 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.6 18.3 16.7 116.4 65.9 58.8 5.9 11.8 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 10.2 16.3 13.0 157.5 80.2 67.6 2.0 4.8 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------