***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 3.9 4.2 13.8 116.8 63.0 57.6 1.9 3.4 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 4.2 6.2 13.5 122.2 66.0 58.5 0.8 2.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 5.8 6.5 13.0 108.6 60.6 54.9 2.8 4.1 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 8.7 9.5 13.9 99.6 58.3 53.2 3.5 7.0 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 9.5 10.7 13.5 101.8 59.8 53.4 4.1 8.4 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.4 16.3 98.0 57.1 51.8 2.6 5.8 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.1 13.7 126.5 66.6 59.3 0.9 3.5 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 16.4 18.1 14.6 100.6 56.3 52.4 8.6 14.4 23.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 7.9 8.7 13.6 104.9 61.6 54.6 4.1 6.8 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 12.1 14.7 14.6 103.0 58.1 53.6 5.3 10.8 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 9.3 10.5 12.0 96.6 57.8 51.7 3.5 7.3 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 8.9 9.3 12.1 96.8 57.8 51.3 4.2 6.3 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.4 7.8 13.8 96.6 55.6 51.3 3.8 6.4 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 7.2 11.3 15.7 105.2 63.6 54.8 3.7 5.2 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 2.8 2.4 12.6 90.7 54.4 50.6 0.4 1.4 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.3 7.4 12.6 96.2 59.1 51.7 3.9 6.9 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 3.0 5.9 13.1 124.8 68.6 59.1 0.4 1.3 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 9.5 10.9 16.7 105.9 60.4 54.1 3.6 7.8 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 4.2 6.8 13.3 118.4 64.6 57.8 1.1 2.8 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.6 20.0 103.6 57.5 52.3 3.9 8.1 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 7.5 8.1 13.2 108.4 60.2 55.9 3.8 7.0 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.5 7.2 13.5 122.5 65.2 58.7 0.7 1.5 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 3.9 6.4 13.4 112.0 64.0 56.8 1.4 2.4 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.5 14.0 15.0 105.0 62.2 54.0 4.1 9.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.3 7.2 16.3 115.1 63.8 58.3 2.1 5.7 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.4 13.4 94.2 57.2 50.3 2.7 6.3 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.5 7.4 16.1 120.8 64.7 59.1 1.9 4.1 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.9 7.0 12.7 91.2 57.2 50.3 0.8 3.2 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.6 20.4 17.9 105.7 59.3 53.1 5.0 16.4 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 3.9 5.3 13.4 118.7 63.5 57.6 1.2 3.0 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------