***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 6.0 6.8 14.1 148.7 74.2 65.2 1.0 4.4 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 4.7 6.3 14.0 147.3 75.4 65.0 0.8 1.9 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 10.1 16.2 15.2 157.2 79.8 66.1 1.0 4.8 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 11.1 13.6 16.7 150.5 78.1 64.5 3.6 6.6 9.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 8.9 10.2 17.0 148.2 76.0 64.4 0.9 4.5 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 5.3 9.1 19.4 130.1 69.4 62.1 0.9 3.6 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 6.4 7.7 13.4 141.0 74.8 64.1 0.8 2.4 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 18.1 20.7 18.3 144.8 74.7 63.7 6.5 13.1 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 8.5 10.9 17.4 153.6 77.0 65.4 0.6 3.1 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 12.3 16.7 18.6 149.6 76.2 64.6 1.0 3.9 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.2 10.9 15.4 139.6 74.7 62.3 1.5 3.6 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 8.0 10.8 16.1 144.0 73.9 63.8 0.6 3.0 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 6.7 8.4 18.0 139.2 72.0 64.7 2.3 5.4 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 16.7 25.9 19.4 154.9 79.9 64.5 2.7 3.7 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 8.4 13.6 17.0 159.4 80.4 66.1 1.3 3.1 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.8 13.3 16.4 139.0 73.4 63.6 2.1 6.3 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 2.8 6.3 13.0 140.8 76.3 63.5 0.8 1.8 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 13.9 20.8 21.8 157.9 79.7 66.8 1.2 3.8 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 8.5 11.4 14.4 150.8 76.8 64.7 1.3 3.8 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 8.7 10.1 25.3 151.4 76.7 66.5 0.9 3.4 6.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 8.5 15.2 16.0 160.6 80.7 66.9 0.5 2.0 4.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 4.7 6.5 13.4 143.4 73.7 63.7 0.7 1.3 3.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 10.0 15.5 15.3 154.2 79.6 64.1 0.3 2.9 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 13.7 19.5 19.2 160.0 79.1 66.5 1.1 4.7 11.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 7.0 9.0 17.4 152.5 75.9 66.0 1.0 3.4 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 7.0 4.0 18.3 141.5 70.8 65.4 0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 5.7 7.1 15.9 146.9 74.1 64.7 0.5 3.3 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 8.6 12.7 16.8 150.0 79.7 64.0 1.6 4.0 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 15.3 21.8 23.2 156.7 80.3 66.9 3.9 6.3 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 8.8 11.6 14.0 146.9 75.3 64.2 0.9 2.8 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------