***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 13.4 19.1 18.1 163.0 80.3 68.0 3.6 6.1 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 10.2 12.0 13.7 134.5 71.7 63.3 4.8 8.7 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 17.8 24.4 16.4 144.6 79.1 64.3 5.1 10.5 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 16.9 28.7 22.3 185.2 91.9 73.2 4.0 10.4 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 16.0 29.6 23.3 179.3 91.0 72.4 5.3 9.2 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 11.7 17.3 22.6 180.6 88.2 74.2 3.4 5.2 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 12.8 15.9 14.7 145.0 76.3 66.7 2.6 8.0 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 27.0 34.4 22.9 161.7 84.8 71.7 12.7 16.5 23.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 12.1 20.0 19.9 159.3 87.2 67.2 3.6 5.6 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 14.8 18.6 21.3 151.1 84.1 67.8 7.1 11.4 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 12.5 20.6 21.7 179.4 88.5 70.8 3.0 5.6 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 12.5 19.0 22.1 183.5 87.2 74.5 3.1 6.9 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 11.5 22.6 25.5 203.7 91.8 78.3 3.6 5.6 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.4 26.1 15.7 110.1 66.8 54.1 9.7 16.0 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 17.7 28.2 19.8 193.5 87.8 75.1 1.1 5.4 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 14.0 27.8 23.7 195.6 92.5 75.5 1.4 6.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 10.6 12.7 13.7 135.5 73.9 66.2 4.1 6.8 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 13.6 15.3 21.1 133.8 77.8 65.6 7.0 9.9 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 10.4 16.1 13.4 127.3 70.3 60.5 4.0 8.9 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 16.8 20.6 30.2 153.4 84.5 74.1 4.2 9.5 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 16.7 27.6 18.8 157.6 86.1 67.3 2.8 7.4 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 9.7 12.3 13.4 127.1 73.6 63.2 4.0 8.9 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.0 12.0 13.5 117.0 68.1 56.3 5.0 7.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.6 19.7 17.1 121.5 74.2 58.1 9.2 11.4 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 15.1 28.3 24.6 182.2 89.7 74.7 2.3 9.8 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 13.8 21.8 26.6 204.9 89.5 81.1 2.7 5.9 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 12.1 18.8 21.2 168.3 84.0 70.2 2.4 6.3 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 15.6 32.2 21.1 194.6 91.4 74.6 1.8 4.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 22.0 26.3 22.6 132.1 78.5 65.4 11.0 14.8 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 10.1 19.3 14.9 142.0 76.5 63.6 3.5 7.9 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------