***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 12.9 13.7 12.3 1.7 77.7 71.0 10.9 11.7 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 12.9 13.7 12.1 1.5 72.3 69.1 10.3 11.5 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 13.5 14.5 12.4 1.7 75.8 70.2 10.4 11.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 5.9 6.9 10.5 2.1 77.9 74.0 2.8 4.3 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 13.8 14.7 10.9 1.9 76.9 72.3 10.6 12.3 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 13.0 13.9 9.3 2.0 77.0 73.0 9.6 10.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 12.7 13.6 12.0 1.5 73.5 69.6 9.8 11.1 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 2.5 2.7 9.2 1.6 75.7 69.7 0.5 1.2 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 13.8 14.6 11.5 1.8 77.9 71.6 10.7 12.3 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 14.0 14.8 10.2 1.7 76.5 70.5 10.3 12.3 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 13.9 14.6 10.6 1.8 75.3 72.0 10.6 12.2 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 13.3 14.0 10.1 1.7 74.3 70.6 10.2 11.4 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.9 9.9 1.7 73.6 70.9 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.7 11.2 1.5 72.5 67.9 10.9 12.3 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 13.5 14.4 11.4 2.3 79.5 75.8 10.6 12.2 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 14.6 15.2 10.4 1.9 74.2 72.6 11.2 12.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 12.2 12.9 11.7 1.3 71.3 68.1 9.5 10.7 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 13.7 14.3 9.4 1.6 75.3 69.0 10.0 12.1 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 13.1 14.1 12.3 1.5 73.2 69.2 10.0 11.7 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 8.8 9.3 6.8 1.3 74.4 67.3 5.9 6.9 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 13.7 14.3 12.1 1.8 76.9 71.1 10.4 12.4 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 12.0 13.8 11.8 1.3 70.1 67.4 10.5 11.7 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 13.7 14.5 12.3 1.6 73.9 69.3 10.8 12.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 14.0 14.7 11.2 1.6 75.0 69.2 11.3 12.1 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 13.0 13.7 10.9 1.9 79.0 72.1 10.2 11.8 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 13.5 14.4 9.3 1.6 73.8 70.5 10.5 11.4 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 13.1 14.1 11.6 1.8 78.0 71.4 10.6 11.5 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 13.6 14.6 11.0 2.2 78.1 74.6 10.8 12.0 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 8.6 9.1 8.4 1.5 75.0 68.0 5.9 7.0 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 12.8 13.8 12.2 1.6 73.6 69.7 9.9 11.4 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------