***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.6 13.3 0.5 57.7 53.5 12.9 15.0 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.1 13.0 0.2 50.6 51.5 13.1 14.1 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.5 13.3 0.5 53.1 53.5 13.2 15.3 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 8.1 8.5 11.8 1.1 62.1 57.6 5.2 7.6 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.1 11.9 0.9 58.4 56.0 13.5 15.2 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 14.6 16.4 10.3 1.2 64.6 58.5 11.7 13.9 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.7 12.9 0.2 49.8 50.8 12.6 13.7 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 3.9 3.4 10.3 0.8 58.9 54.9 1.4 3.1 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.8 12.3 0.7 55.7 54.8 13.0 15.0 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.8 11.1 0.7 56.0 54.4 12.9 15.2 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.0 11.6 0.9 59.7 55.9 13.0 15.4 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 15.0 14.9 11.3 0.8 61.1 56.0 12.2 14.4 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 15.6 16.1 10.9 0.9 61.1 57.0 13.6 14.9 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.7 12.0 0.4 48.5 52.0 13.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.4 12.1 1.2 62.0 59.2 13.5 14.5 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.8 11.4 1.0 62.4 57.4 13.9 15.6 17.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.6 12.9 12.6 0.0 49.0 49.9 12.0 13.1 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.3 14.8 10.4 0.6 51.8 53.2 12.3 14.7 16.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.3 13.2 0.3 50.9 52.0 13.0 14.3 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.4 7.9 0.6 53.8 54.0 6.9 9.3 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.6 16.1 12.9 0.7 56.6 54.7 13.4 15.0 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.3 12.7 0.1 49.0 50.3 12.6 14.6 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.5 13.2 0.4 50.7 52.4 12.8 15.4 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.6 12.0 0.5 51.0 52.7 12.7 15.5 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.9 11.9 0.8 60.1 55.3 13.0 14.9 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.5 10.5 0.9 61.6 56.7 12.8 14.2 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.2 12.5 0.6 58.0 53.7 13.3 14.7 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.6 16.9 12.1 1.2 63.0 59.0 13.6 15.1 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.2 9.4 0.5 51.2 53.0 7.2 10.2 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.5 13.2 0.3 51.8 52.2 12.9 14.1 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------