***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 12.9 11.9 11.4 0.3 53.4 53.3 8.9 11.9 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.1 11.3 0.2 53.9 52.5 9.6 10.8 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.4 11.5 0.3 55.1 53.7 9.3 12.8 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.0 9.8 0.8 60.3 57.1 0.9 4.9 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.8 9.9 0.5 57.0 54.6 9.0 12.9 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 9.3 13.3 8.0 0.3 57.6 52.9 8.0 12.0 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.9 11.2 0.2 54.3 52.2 9.1 11.1 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.5 2.6 8.2 0.2 58.3 52.4 -1.0 0.9 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.4 10.3 0.3 58.2 53.6 8.6 12.9 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.6 9.1 0.2 58.7 52.8 8.3 13.4 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.7 9.5 0.3 56.6 53.3 8.9 13.2 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 9.2 13.4 9.1 0.2 57.6 52.4 7.9 12.0 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 9.9 13.6 8.6 0.1 55.7 51.7 9.3 13.1 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.8 10.3 0.3 56.3 53.4 9.8 13.1 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 12.8 14.2 10.3 1.0 62.0 59.1 9.9 11.7 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.7 14.1 9.2 0.3 55.2 53.1 9.3 13.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.7 11.0 0.1 54.2 52.1 8.7 10.2 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 10.0 12.8 8.4 0.2 58.6 52.7 8.5 12.6 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.7 11.5 0.2 54.6 52.9 9.3 11.5 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.5 8.7 5.8 0.0 56.0 51.5 3.9 7.0 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.3 11.0 0.3 57.0 53.9 9.2 12.6 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.6 11.2 0.2 54.5 52.6 9.5 10.9 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.2 11.5 0.3 56.4 53.4 9.9 12.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.5 10.2 0.3 58.1 53.4 9.6 12.7 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.1 9.9 0.5 57.0 55.1 9.0 11.9 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 9.7 13.9 8.4 0.1 56.3 51.9 8.6 12.6 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.6 10.5 0.3 54.5 53.5 9.1 12.1 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.4 14.8 10.1 0.8 59.7 57.3 9.6 12.3 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.5 7.8 7.4 0.2 57.2 52.6 3.5 7.2 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.1 11.4 0.2 53.7 52.8 9.4 11.2 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------