***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 13.2 15.2 13.2 3.7 86.9 78.7 8.0 10.5 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 13.7 15.8 12.9 3.5 86.1 77.8 8.3 10.6 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 13.8 15.2 13.2 3.6 83.9 77.2 8.2 11.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 5.7 8.1 11.4 4.0 86.0 79.1 0.0 2.2 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 14.2 15.4 11.6 3.8 82.7 77.5 8.2 11.2 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 11.9 13.6 10.3 4.2 85.4 78.6 6.5 9.2 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 13.4 15.8 12.9 3.6 86.9 78.9 8.3 10.4 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 3.1 3.9 9.8 3.4 81.7 74.5 -2.0 0.5 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 14.0 15.7 12.1 3.7 81.9 76.3 8.1 10.8 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 14.3 15.7 10.8 3.6 81.4 75.3 8.5 11.0 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 14.0 15.4 11.2 3.7 82.9 76.6 8.2 10.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 13.0 14.6 10.7 3.4 82.5 75.2 7.9 10.0 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 13.6 14.6 10.6 3.8 84.5 76.9 9.2 10.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 14.4 15.7 11.7 3.2 79.4 73.1 8.8 11.8 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 13.9 15.7 11.8 4.1 87.4 79.9 7.6 10.3 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 14.1 15.3 11.1 3.9 83.8 77.6 8.5 11.4 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 13.8 15.4 12.5 3.3 85.7 77.5 7.3 10.4 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 13.5 15.2 10.1 3.4 81.1 74.0 8.6 10.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 13.4 15.3 13.0 3.4 85.4 76.8 7.8 10.6 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 8.3 9.5 7.5 3.0 80.3 72.8 3.7 6.0 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 13.8 15.2 12.7 3.7 82.6 77.1 8.6 11.0 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 14.0 15.6 12.5 3.1 83.7 74.9 8.1 11.3 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 14.1 15.8 13.0 3.4 83.7 75.4 8.7 11.6 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 14.1 15.6 11.7 3.4 80.7 74.5 8.6 11.3 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 13.5 15.4 11.8 4.0 87.1 79.3 7.3 10.3 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 13.6 14.7 10.1 3.5 85.5 76.8 8.7 10.9 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 13.7 15.6 12.5 3.9 88.2 79.5 8.3 10.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 14.2 15.9 11.7 4.1 85.8 79.0 7.6 10.8 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 8.6 10.2 9.0 3.2 80.5 73.1 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 13.4 15.6 13.1 3.6 86.2 78.1 7.7 10.5 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------