***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 13.2 13.5 11.3 2.3 68.9 68.4 6.8 11.3 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 46 54 100 11.4 13.0 11.1 2.0 69.4 66.5 7.3 8.9 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 13.0 14.0 11.6 2.2 68.9 66.9 8.1 10.6 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 6.4 6.9 9.1 2.5 70.2 69.6 0.1 3.3 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 13.3 13.6 10.2 2.5 68.1 68.2 8.7 11.0 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 12.4 13.7 8.5 2.3 68.3 66.4 7.4 9.6 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 11.2 12.7 11.0 2.0 69.2 67.5 7.4 8.4 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 1.1 2.7 8.4 2.1 62.1 65.7 -1.0 0.8 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 13.7 14.8 11.3 2.6 72.9 69.3 8.8 11.4 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 47 53 100 13.3 12.6 9.7 2.4 65.7 66.9 8.6 11.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 11.9 14.1 10.2 2.5 65.6 67.3 8.6 11.4 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 10.5 11.2 9.3 2.2 62.5 65.9 8.4 10.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 11.1 13.0 9.6 2.1 62.7 64.1 8.8 10.5 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 12.2 13.3 10.8 2.1 62.6 64.2 8.9 11.8 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 13.8 14.8 11.3 2.8 72.7 71.7 6.3 8.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 49 51 100 13.2 14.5 9.9 2.4 66.8 66.7 9.0 11.1 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 8.9 12.2 10.6 1.9 68.3 66.3 6.7 8.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 10.9 12.8 8.8 2.2 64.2 65.3 8.7 10.5 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 45 55 100 11.8 13.1 11.3 2.1 69.5 66.7 7.3 9.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 6.2 6.7 6.0 1.6 60.7 62.6 4.6 5.7 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 13.4 14.2 11.6 2.4 70.9 67.8 8.5 11.2 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 47 53 100 11.9 13.2 10.9 2.0 70.2 66.4 7.0 9.6 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 12.7 13.9 11.5 2.2 68.8 66.8 8.5 10.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 12.0 14.0 10.7 2.2 65.3 65.4 8.9 11.6 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 12.5 13.0 10.2 2.3 68.7 68.4 7.6 9.9 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 10.9 12.1 8.2 1.9 60.6 64.6 8.4 10.4 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 12.7 13.4 10.7 2.3 69.6 68.9 7.9 10.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 14.2 14.8 10.3 2.7 70.8 69.8 7.1 9.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 6.6 8.6 7.7 1.9 62.6 64.4 4.6 6.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 47 53 100 11.4 13.0 11.3 2.1 68.8 67.1 7.4 9.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------