***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 3.2 3.7 4.3 2.6 87.8 83.4 0.5 1.6 2.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 2.9 3.6 3.9 2.4 85.8 82.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 5.3 5.9 4.1 2.5 87.8 83.4 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 -1.1 0.3 1.7 2.7 86.9 84.7 -3.4 -3.1 -2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 1.8 2.5 1.9 2.7 87.0 84.4 -0.1 0.9 1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 1.1 1.5 -0.4 2.8 86.3 82.7 -1.2 0.1 0.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 3.1 3.4 4.0 2.4 85.2 82.2 0.4 1.4 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 -3.7 -3.0 -0.1 2.7 85.5 81.3 -6.8 -5.4 -4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 3.0 4.0 2.5 2.8 89.4 85.2 0.4 1.7 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 2.7 3.6 0.8 2.8 87.7 82.9 0.8 1.4 2.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 2.4 3.2 1.4 2.6 87.0 83.8 0.4 1.5 2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 1.2 1.8 0.9 2.6 85.8 82.2 -0.8 0.1 1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 2.1 2.6 0.5 2.5 85.3 81.7 0.0 1.3 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 3.2 4.0 2.1 2.4 88.1 81.2 1.0 1.8 3.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 2.9 3.8 2.6 2.7 89.6 87.3 0.5 1.7 2.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 3.0 4.0 1.0 2.6 85.4 83.2 1.0 1.8 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 3.1 3.9 3.7 2.2 84.8 80.8 0.4 1.6 2.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 0.8 1.3 0.1 2.7 85.9 80.7 -1.5 -0.1 0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 3.0 3.5 3.9 2.3 86.5 82.4 0.4 1.3 2.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 -1.9 -1.1 -2.2 2.6 81.9 77.7 -4.2 -3.1 -2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 2.8 3.5 3.6 2.7 88.5 84.1 0.3 1.8 2.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 2.6 3.1 3.7 2.2 85.6 80.8 0.1 1.1 2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 2.5 3.4 3.6 2.3 87.5 82.9 0.1 1.1 1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 2.4 3.3 2.0 2.5 88.0 82.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 2.6 3.4 2.8 2.7 86.7 84.3 0.6 1.6 2.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 2.3 2.6 0.4 2.4 85.7 81.1 0.0 1.1 1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 2.6 3.5 3.6 2.7 86.6 83.4 0.7 1.8 2.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.6 85.6 84.6 -0.5 0.0 0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 0.3 1.3 -0.8 2.7 84.9 79.5 -2.7 -1.6 -0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 3.4 3.8 4.1 2.5 86.5 82.7 0.8 1.7 2.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------