***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.4 4.5 1.0 65.3 58.9 1.9 3.5 4.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.8 4.1 0.7 59.0 57.1 1.9 3.3 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.4 4.2 0.9 65.1 59.5 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -0.1 0.9 2.1 1.3 69.7 63.1 -2.3 -0.4 0.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 3.6 4.6 2.1 1.3 72.6 62.2 1.6 3.3 3.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 2.4 2.4 -0.3 1.1 58.1 60.5 0.7 2.2 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.8 4.1 0.8 59.2 57.3 2.3 3.3 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -2.7 -2.2 0.1 1.2 63.9 60.5 -5.2 -3.0 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 4.9 5.1 2.6 1.2 71.4 61.7 1.8 4.3 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 4.1 4.8 0.9 1.3 68.2 61.3 2.1 3.8 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.7 1.5 1.2 70.8 61.3 2.7 3.7 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 2.8 3.2 1.2 1.2 65.0 61.2 0.9 2.4 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 3.4 4.1 0.6 1.1 61.6 61.1 1.7 3.1 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.7 2.3 0.9 61.2 58.6 2.5 4.0 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 4.5 4.7 2.7 1.3 69.6 63.6 2.8 3.3 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.9 1.2 1.2 65.6 61.5 2.6 4.2 4.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.8 4.0 3.9 0.7 57.8 56.2 2.1 3.4 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 2.0 2.4 0.2 1.2 61.2 60.4 0.6 1.6 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 3.8 3.9 4.1 0.8 60.8 57.6 2.2 3.4 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -0.4 -0.8 -2.1 1.2 54.9 59.5 -2.8 -0.9 -0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.1 4.9 3.7 1.2 69.7 61.0 1.9 3.7 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.2 4.0 4.0 0.8 60.7 57.6 1.8 2.9 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 3.5 4.1 3.8 0.8 62.4 58.2 1.6 3.2 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 4.0 4.0 2.2 1.1 62.4 59.8 1.9 3.7 4.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.0 4.8 2.9 1.1 65.7 61.0 1.8 3.8 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 3.4 3.3 0.7 1.0 58.8 60.8 1.6 3.0 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.7 3.7 1.0 64.8 59.2 2.7 4.0 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 2.6 3.2 2.3 1.3 68.1 62.9 0.7 2.3 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 1.0 1.2 -0.6 1.2 57.1 59.8 -1.1 0.5 1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.6 4.3 0.8 60.9 57.7 2.4 3.9 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------