***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 2.6 4.4 5.3 4.6 93.4 85.5 -0.2 0.8 1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 2.5 5.0 4.7 4.2 90.1 85.2 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 5.3 6.9 4.8 4.3 91.0 85.5 1.1 2.3 3.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 -1.6 0.5 2.3 4.4 91.5 85.5 -5.4 -3.8 -2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 1.5 2.9 2.4 4.4 91.8 85.0 -1.5 -0.6 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 0.3 1.5 0.1 4.3 87.2 83.0 -2.6 -1.0 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 2.3 4.9 4.8 4.3 90.9 85.2 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 -3.5 -1.9 0.3 4.4 89.8 82.5 -8.6 -7.0 -4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 2.6 4.6 3.1 4.5 92.2 85.1 -0.4 0.7 1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 2.6 3.9 1.4 4.6 90.9 83.7 -0.4 1.1 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 2.3 3.6 1.8 4.2 91.2 83.9 -1.1 0.7 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 1.2 1.7 1.3 4.0 89.6 82.6 -2.0 -0.7 -0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 1.7 2.7 0.9 4.1 88.6 82.5 -0.9 0.3 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 3.0 5.0 2.8 4.2 90.5 83.3 -0.3 1.3 2.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 2.3 3.7 2.8 4.1 90.2 85.9 -0.4 1.4 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 2.6 4.5 1.3 4.1 90.4 83.3 -0.1 1.0 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 3.0 4.7 4.5 4.0 89.1 83.9 -0.4 0.8 1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 0.6 1.4 0.7 4.7 89.8 82.6 -2.2 -0.7 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 2.3 4.9 4.6 4.1 90.0 84.9 -0.4 0.3 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 -1.7 -0.4 -1.5 4.6 88.2 81.2 -5.4 -4.1 -2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 2.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 92.9 85.5 -0.6 0.2 1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 2.4 4.1 4.4 3.8 89.1 83.0 -0.7 0.1 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 2.0 3.9 4.2 4.0 90.5 84.4 -0.6 0.1 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 2.6 3.8 2.6 4.3 90.4 83.5 -0.6 0.1 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 2.1 3.8 3.4 4.5 93.9 85.6 -0.8 0.2 1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 2.0 2.4 0.8 3.8 87.4 82.4 -1.1 0.0 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 2.1 4.9 4.4 4.6 93.6 85.1 -0.7 0.3 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 0.9 1.9 2.3 4.2 89.7 84.8 -1.9 -0.6 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 0.0 1.7 -0.1 4.7 87.9 81.5 -4.0 -2.8 -0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 2.8 5.3 4.9 4.3 91.2 85.5 -0.2 0.4 1.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------