***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 4.0 4.7 4.5 4.0 92.8 89.7 -0.8 0.2 2.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 2.9 3.4 3.9 3.5 84.1 83.0 -0.7 0.3 1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 5.0 6.1 4.2 3.7 91.0 87.4 1.1 2.1 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 -0.4 0.3 1.6 3.7 89.1 87.0 -5.4 -4.3 -1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 1.9 4.1 2.5 4.1 91.8 89.6 -1.6 -0.6 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 1.0 2.8 0.3 4.2 91.8 90.2 -2.9 -1.6 0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 3.0 3.7 4.0 3.6 84.9 83.6 -0.5 0.3 1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 -3.5 -2.4 0.6 4.2 91.1 88.4 -7.8 -5.3 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 3.4 4.5 3.1 4.4 93.7 92.5 -0.8 0.6 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 3.2 4.7 1.6 4.2 91.7 89.2 -0.4 -0.1 1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 2.8 4.6 2.1 4.1 92.4 90.4 -1.2 -0.2 1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 1.6 3.0 1.5 4.2 91.9 89.5 -2.0 -1.2 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 2.6 3.5 1.2 3.9 86.8 85.9 -1.2 -0.7 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 3.6 4.0 2.4 3.5 86.8 84.7 0.2 0.7 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 3.0 4.3 3.2 4.0 91.9 90.6 -1.1 0.6 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 3.7 4.6 1.6 4.0 90.1 88.4 -0.7 0.4 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.2 80.0 80.8 -0.4 0.6 1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 0.5 1.3 0.7 4.0 88.7 86.6 -2.6 -1.5 -0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 2.8 3.6 3.9 3.5 85.6 84.0 -0.3 0.6 1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 -1.7 -1.0 -1.4 4.1 84.7 83.1 -5.7 -4.2 -2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 2.6 4.8 4.1 4.0 92.8 89.5 -0.7 0.2 1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 2.4 2.6 3.6 3.1 80.6 80.6 -1.0 0.4 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 2.4 3.4 3.7 3.5 89.1 85.9 -1.1 0.0 1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 2.4 3.5 2.5 3.8 89.1 87.1 -0.9 -0.1 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 2.0 3.5 3.4 4.0 90.5 88.4 -0.7 -0.3 1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 2.5 3.2 1.0 3.9 87.5 85.0 -1.5 -0.2 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 3.6 4.9 4.1 4.1 91.5 88.6 -0.8 0.5 1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 1.7 2.6 2.2 3.7 88.9 86.5 -2.4 -1.3 0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 0.1 1.3 -0.2 4.2 88.0 85.9 -3.8 -2.2 -0.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 3.6 4.1 4.2 3.7 87.1 85.2 -0.7 0.7 1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------