***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 28.7 32.6 51.2 104.1 58.6 55.0 16.0 23.9 36.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 30.6 26.5 42.7 98.2 52.1 50.5 19.3 26.2 31.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 40.5 39.4 49.6 102.2 55.3 52.8 21.5 35.6 46.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 41.0 42.3 60.9 108.0 59.3 55.7 27.2 36.6 49.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 38.5 37.8 60.0 106.6 57.3 54.5 29.1 33.2 45.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 21.1 36.3 64.4 109.8 60.8 56.6 22.2 29.9 42.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 28.6 27.4 42.5 98.6 53.4 51.1 17.9 25.7 32.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 68.6 74.5 64.4 106.3 58.2 53.9 48.6 64.1 77.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 34.6 32.2 60.1 106.1 58.0 53.8 21.6 29.8 38.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 41.9 37.2 65.9 106.9 58.4 54.3 25.6 34.8 47.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 22.4 36.9 59.7 107.5 58.4 54.6 21.8 30.0 40.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 26.0 36.7 57.6 105.7 57.4 53.7 26.4 35.0 37.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 25.1 41.5 66.3 111.9 61.8 57.4 29.9 37.0 42.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 55.2 59.0 63.8 100.8 55.6 51.8 37.6 49.0 66.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 45.3 47.2 57.0 110.5 61.6 55.4 16.7 39.4 51.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 24.5 35.6 61.4 109.9 60.6 55.9 26.0 30.7 41.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 28.3 24.8 41.0 96.2 50.7 49.3 18.3 24.7 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 39.4 35.8 67.8 103.9 54.5 52.8 27.2 35.0 45.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 34.8 33.1 44.4 98.9 53.2 50.5 26.5 33.0 36.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 40.2 38.2 80.3 105.9 58.3 53.9 26.6 36.8 42.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 36.3 40.8 56.0 105.8 58.4 54.8 18.6 33.9 42.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 33.3 28.0 43.8 96.8 51.4 49.1 21.6 27.8 35.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 36.8 35.7 48.4 99.5 55.2 50.8 23.5 33.2 37.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 51.8 51.1 60.3 102.5 55.2 52.5 35.9 45.2 60.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 32.7 34.4 61.1 107.6 61.5 57.2 16.8 24.3 35.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 20.3 36.8 63.7 111.8 63.3 58.0 22.7 29.2 37.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 18.8 34.2 55.1 104.6 59.1 55.5 15.6 29.0 36.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 35.6 34.3 59.0 109.6 60.3 55.4 17.4 29.5 39.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 66.6 62.8 70.9 102.3 54.7 51.6 40.2 59.1 68.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 32.1 31.1 44.5 100.0 54.3 51.6 17.4 29.6 36.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------