***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.9 13.1 100.4 58.7 52.0 1.0 2.8 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.9 8.4 11.3 96.8 58.4 52.8 0.9 3.3 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.7 8.8 12.6 98.7 59.5 51.6 1.9 3.7 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.7 16.4 113.7 63.7 55.0 3.4 5.0 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.7 15.3 107.5 61.9 53.0 2.6 5.1 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.6 8.1 18.0 121.3 68.8 56.3 1.6 3.6 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.1 4.8 11.1 96.2 58.8 53.2 1.2 2.8 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.1 19.5 17.4 113.6 65.9 54.4 5.2 11.0 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.2 6.3 15.6 106.9 64.1 53.6 1.6 3.3 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.7 17.4 109.6 65.4 54.1 2.3 4.1 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.5 15.1 111.4 63.0 53.3 1.5 3.3 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.4 15.4 114.3 64.8 53.8 1.8 5.2 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.0 9.1 17.1 118.0 65.3 54.3 3.3 6.1 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.7 15.1 17.1 101.4 60.6 52.6 3.3 12.1 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.0 11.7 16.5 121.2 69.3 56.5 0.8 3.3 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.5 7.0 16.0 116.2 64.5 53.7 2.0 4.6 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.6 8.1 10.8 91.6 55.6 52.0 2.1 6.2 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 9.8 18.2 107.4 64.1 53.6 3.0 4.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.7 6.4 11.9 98.5 58.4 52.3 1.2 5.3 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.9 13.2 22.6 114.9 66.2 53.9 2.6 5.2 13.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.7 5.9 14.2 104.4 62.8 53.5 3.3 4.9 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.7 10.8 12.0 97.4 57.4 52.6 1.9 5.0 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.2 5.6 13.1 99.8 58.3 51.5 2.0 3.7 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.4 11.2 15.7 101.9 62.1 52.4 3.8 7.1 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.2 6.7 15.8 107.7 61.5 54.1 1.4 3.8 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.8 16.7 119.6 64.6 55.8 1.5 3.8 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.2 14.3 103.9 59.4 52.7 2.1 3.0 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.7 16.5 120.3 67.3 55.5 0.7 3.5 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 11.0 13.3 19.4 109.0 64.3 53.5 3.9 6.1 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.0 3.7 11.7 97.8 58.4 52.1 2.1 3.1 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------