***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 3.0 3.4 15.4 117.3 63.1 56.7 0.9 2.4 4.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 4.2 3.1 12.5 109.8 63.3 54.8 0.7 2.3 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.3 15.8 121.5 64.8 57.5 2.8 4.3 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.6 11.8 18.2 119.4 66.4 56.9 3.9 8.3 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.2 10.1 18.2 118.3 66.1 56.7 3.6 6.5 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.8 7.9 18.9 114.6 62.2 55.3 1.8 4.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.2 5.8 12.2 108.7 63.1 55.6 0.7 2.0 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.8 19.4 20.0 121.2 67.8 56.9 9.3 15.3 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.2 10.4 19.0 119.3 67.4 57.1 3.9 6.3 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.3 15.5 20.5 121.0 66.4 57.3 4.7 7.6 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.8 11.6 17.9 119.8 66.5 56.8 2.8 7.2 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.6 12.7 18.1 121.7 68.4 57.4 3.7 6.3 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.2 6.6 19.8 124.8 66.4 58.5 3.5 4.3 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.7 12.3 20.5 122.5 66.5 57.6 4.0 5.1 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 3.8 7.9 17.5 124.5 69.2 56.7 0.1 1.9 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.8 11.4 18.4 121.7 66.0 57.5 3.5 5.0 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.5 11.2 102.5 60.6 53.3 0.4 2.4 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.5 12.2 21.6 120.4 65.7 57.3 3.6 7.3 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.0 4.2 13.5 114.4 62.8 55.2 1.1 2.0 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.3 11.7 24.6 117.7 64.9 56.1 3.7 7.9 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.0 17.7 123.4 68.9 58.3 3.0 6.4 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.8 12.1 104.0 58.9 52.7 0.3 1.8 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.3 6.1 15.4 121.5 63.2 56.8 0.7 2.3 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.1 11.6 19.8 124.5 68.2 58.5 4.1 7.7 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.3 7.2 18.0 119.7 64.2 57.3 1.9 4.0 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.9 9.1 20.0 129.5 67.8 58.8 1.4 3.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.1 16.0 115.3 61.3 56.4 1.5 3.3 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.7 17.7 119.7 66.8 56.3 1.0 3.8 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.0 20.2 22.5 118.1 65.6 56.5 8.1 12.2 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.0 3.9 13.5 115.1 63.7 56.5 0.7 2.5 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------