***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.2 10.8 88.0 55.5 48.9 1.0 4.8 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.5 10.0 89.6 55.4 48.8 0.7 1.9 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.6 10.7 87.7 54.2 47.7 0.9 5.4 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.1 6.4 12.3 85.9 54.6 47.9 2.7 6.1 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.8 4.8 11.8 83.8 52.7 46.9 0.7 3.7 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.8 4.2 13.1 86.6 53.9 46.4 0.9 3.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.0 2.2 9.9 90.2 53.5 49.7 0.3 1.6 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.5 15.2 13.9 93.8 54.8 48.9 5.8 11.4 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 3.6 1.5 12.1 85.3 52.2 47.7 0.0 1.2 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.6 3.3 13.9 93.0 54.9 49.6 0.4 2.7 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.3 3.2 13.2 91.1 53.9 49.0 0.8 3.0 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 1.3 3.5 12.6 90.0 53.5 47.2 0.5 2.8 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.3 6.5 13.1 87.0 51.7 47.0 2.6 6.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.3 3.5 14.2 87.5 51.7 47.1 0.9 3.4 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.6 3.8 11.4 85.2 55.9 47.9 1.5 3.5 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.3 7.5 12.5 89.5 54.2 48.0 2.1 4.8 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 2.6 1.5 9.8 89.9 55.4 49.0 0.4 1.2 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.7 2.7 13.9 88.1 50.7 47.2 0.8 2.7 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.4 3.8 10.2 88.9 55.7 47.8 0.8 3.0 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 3.9 3.5 16.5 90.7 52.0 48.4 1.1 3.0 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.2 2.0 11.0 82.0 52.1 46.6 0.2 2.0 4.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 2.8 1.9 10.8 93.4 56.1 49.2 0.4 1.2 2.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.9 2.9 10.7 85.3 54.3 45.2 0.3 2.2 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.1 2.9 13.0 87.5 51.9 47.2 0.9 2.3 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.4 4.5 11.5 80.1 53.0 45.8 0.5 4.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.0 2.7 13.0 87.3 54.7 47.6 0.6 1.9 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.5 11.3 85.2 55.1 47.9 0.5 4.2 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.5 11.9 87.1 55.7 47.9 1.6 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 7.9 5.4 14.7 86.6 49.1 46.5 2.5 5.6 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.1 10.2 90.0 56.2 49.1 0.5 2.5 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------