***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 7.9 8.2 12.0 111.2 62.1 56.7 2.1 6.1 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.8 10.5 8.9 96.2 56.2 51.3 5.5 8.3 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 9.4 11.1 10.4 99.2 58.0 52.4 4.3 7.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 14.6 16.0 14.0 113.2 65.9 55.4 3.4 13.3 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.4 12.8 14.7 117.1 68.4 55.6 5.2 7.7 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 7.2 9.6 14.4 118.2 66.0 54.2 4.4 5.6 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 10.1 11.1 9.3 99.2 56.4 52.8 3.3 8.8 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.6 17.3 13.2 93.9 55.2 49.4 12.9 16.5 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.6 13.3 13.4 112.2 66.0 54.8 2.9 6.3 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.0 12.1 14.1 102.3 60.3 51.9 7.1 9.6 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.6 13.4 108.3 63.7 52.6 2.3 5.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.0 11.6 94.7 54.9 48.8 4.6 6.3 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.1 12.7 16.3 117.7 67.0 52.1 3.9 7.1 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 17.9 16.0 12.0 89.2 51.0 49.0 7.7 15.5 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 10.2 16.4 11.6 110.6 64.0 52.5 0.7 7.1 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.3 12.2 14.4 111.6 63.3 51.9 2.1 8.4 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 9.0 10.7 9.2 102.0 59.7 54.7 5.5 7.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.5 14.1 96.8 57.0 51.3 6.6 9.8 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 9.5 8.1 8.8 92.1 54.7 49.8 4.4 7.1 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.0 10.0 16.6 97.3 57.9 51.4 5.1 8.8 11.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 7.9 15.2 13.1 113.3 65.5 55.5 2.5 5.1 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 10.7 10.3 8.8 91.7 53.3 51.3 5.4 10.1 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 8.7 7.4 9.1 89.5 54.1 49.1 5.1 7.1 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.1 11.6 11.8 93.4 55.0 50.5 8.7 10.8 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 9.5 17.3 15.8 124.4 70.0 59.4 1.8 7.1 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 9.7 10.1 14.0 110.2 60.8 53.4 2.6 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 8.4 10.8 13.4 114.8 64.3 57.4 1.8 7.0 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.5 11.7 12.8 110.5 64.8 52.4 1.9 7.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 16.8 15.5 14.3 92.4 54.2 50.2 9.7 13.8 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 10.1 9.6 9.1 95.9 56.9 51.6 4.3 7.9 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------