***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 12.7 12.9 12.0 1.4 69.9 65.8 10.3 11.6 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 12.7 13.2 12.0 1.3 72.0 66.4 9.7 11.1 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 13.1 13.9 12.4 1.4 70.2 65.9 10.2 11.6 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 4.5 5.0 9.4 1.4 65.0 62.6 2.4 4.1 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 13.4 13.8 10.7 1.5 68.0 64.5 10.1 11.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 12.2 12.7 8.8 1.4 67.8 65.3 9.0 10.3 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 12.4 12.8 11.9 1.3 70.8 66.5 9.2 10.7 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 2.1 2.2 9.1 1.4 70.6 64.8 0.0 0.8 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 13.5 13.9 11.4 1.5 68.9 65.4 10.0 12.2 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 13.4 14.1 10.0 1.4 70.0 64.6 10.1 11.9 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 13.3 14.0 10.8 1.5 70.3 64.8 10.5 12.0 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 12.7 13.4 10.0 1.4 70.7 65.4 9.5 11.0 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 13.5 13.8 9.8 1.3 67.9 64.6 10.2 11.9 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.5 14.1 11.5 1.4 68.2 65.6 10.9 11.9 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 12.5 12.7 10.7 1.3 64.1 61.7 10.0 12.1 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 13.8 14.3 10.2 1.5 69.1 65.3 10.4 12.0 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 12.0 12.6 11.7 1.2 71.8 65.9 9.0 10.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 12.2 13.6 9.6 1.4 70.9 65.0 9.8 11.7 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 12.9 13.7 12.2 1.4 72.4 66.5 9.4 11.1 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.6 8.2 7.0 1.3 69.6 64.6 5.2 6.0 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 13.3 13.8 12.1 1.5 69.6 65.2 10.4 12.0 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 13.1 13.7 11.9 1.3 71.3 66.0 10.1 11.3 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 13.4 14.2 12.4 1.4 72.5 66.3 10.4 11.7 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 13.1 13.9 11.4 1.4 70.0 65.4 10.5 11.4 13.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 12.8 12.6 10.7 1.4 68.3 64.9 9.8 11.6 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 12.9 13.6 9.0 1.3 70.1 65.6 9.7 11.1 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 12.7 13.2 11.4 1.4 69.8 65.9 9.9 11.0 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 12.8 13.3 10.0 1.3 64.3 62.1 10.5 12.4 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 7.9 8.3 8.8 1.4 70.1 65.1 5.3 6.4 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 12.6 13.0 12.1 1.3 70.9 66.4 9.7 11.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------