***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 13.4 14.1 13.1 1.0 61.1 59.2 11.8 12.7 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.8 12.8 0.9 59.9 58.4 11.4 12.4 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.0 13.4 0.9 59.6 58.9 12.1 12.8 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.0 10.8 1.0 56.4 57.4 3.6 5.0 7.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.5 11.6 1.0 58.3 57.5 11.8 13.1 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.4 14.9 9.9 1.3 64.0 59.6 10.2 12.1 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.9 12.8 0.8 59.1 58.1 11.2 12.1 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.1 2.8 10.1 1.1 60.5 58.7 -0.3 0.9 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.0 12.0 1.0 57.5 57.8 11.8 13.0 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.0 10.9 1.1 59.5 58.4 11.5 12.6 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.4 13.9 11.4 1.0 58.8 58.3 11.8 13.1 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.6 14.0 11.0 1.1 59.9 59.1 10.5 12.4 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 16.9 15.7 10.4 1.2 62.0 59.9 11.2 13.0 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.4 12.1 0.9 56.6 58.2 11.9 13.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.0 11.4 0.9 55.4 56.9 12.8 13.8 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.9 11.0 1.1 60.0 59.0 11.6 13.6 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.6 12.6 0.8 59.0 57.2 10.4 11.8 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.4 10.6 1.1 59.6 58.8 11.1 12.0 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.9 13.1 0.9 59.6 58.8 11.3 12.3 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.0 7.7 1.0 60.4 58.7 5.4 7.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.9 12.8 1.0 59.8 58.3 12.0 13.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.2 12.7 0.8 59.2 57.1 11.0 13.1 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 13.7 14.6 13.3 0.9 58.3 59.1 11.8 12.9 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.0 12.1 1.0 58.0 58.6 11.4 13.3 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 13.4 14.6 11.5 1.0 60.2 58.6 12.2 12.5 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 16.0 14.6 10.3 1.3 63.4 61.5 11.0 11.7 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.7 14.0 12.4 1.0 60.6 59.1 11.7 12.9 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.9 13.9 11.0 1.0 56.8 57.4 12.7 13.8 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.5 9.7 1.1 58.5 58.7 5.9 7.7 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.8 12.9 0.9 59.7 58.7 11.2 12.0 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------