***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.2 13.3 11.8 1.1 59.0 57.6 9.8 11.5 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 12.2 13.3 11.7 1.1 59.4 57.7 9.9 11.6 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.4 12.2 1.1 58.5 57.2 10.3 12.5 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 5.2 4.9 9.6 1.2 58.8 57.4 1.3 4.3 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 13.1 13.3 10.4 1.2 57.3 56.6 9.8 12.5 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.9 8.5 1.1 59.0 56.6 8.8 10.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 11.9 13.3 11.7 1.0 59.9 57.8 9.6 11.2 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 1.1 2.4 8.8 1.0 58.0 55.5 -0.8 0.1 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 13.1 12.9 10.8 1.2 57.9 56.6 9.9 12.6 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.5 9.7 1.1 58.3 56.0 9.8 12.8 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.1 10.1 1.1 56.5 55.8 10.0 12.4 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.6 9.7 1.0 56.1 55.0 9.4 11.6 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.2 8.9 1.0 56.3 55.0 10.5 12.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.4 10.8 1.0 56.5 56.2 10.3 13.0 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 12.4 13.5 10.4 1.2 59.1 57.8 9.9 11.7 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.8 9.7 1.1 56.9 55.8 10.8 12.8 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 11.2 13.1 11.5 1.0 59.3 57.5 9.2 10.4 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.1 9.4 1.1 59.5 56.2 10.2 12.3 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 12.3 13.3 11.9 1.1 59.2 57.6 10.0 11.6 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.5 6.7 1.1 62.1 56.1 4.9 7.0 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.1 11.6 1.1 58.8 56.9 10.1 12.8 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 12.5 13.3 11.6 1.0 58.9 57.5 10.0 11.8 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 12.8 13.3 12.1 1.0 58.4 57.1 10.3 12.2 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.0 10.8 1.1 58.1 56.3 10.5 12.6 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 12.6 13.1 10.3 1.2 58.9 57.6 9.7 12.0 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.6 12.9 8.8 1.0 58.3 55.7 10.0 11.7 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.9 11.2 1.2 58.7 57.8 9.9 11.4 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.6 9.8 1.2 58.9 57.4 9.3 12.8 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 7.9 7.9 8.5 1.1 60.1 56.5 4.5 7.0 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.9 11.8 1.0 59.4 57.5 9.8 11.6 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------