***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 45 55 100 13.4 12.1 11.7 1.9 65.8 66.3 7.4 11.4 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 11.7 12.4 11.9 1.9 67.4 67.5 6.1 8.8 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 12.8 12.8 12.4 2.2 66.0 67.8 7.3 10.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 4.3 4.0 8.5 1.6 60.0 61.4 0.2 3.7 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 48 52 100 12.7 12.1 10.6 2.1 64.6 66.3 8.1 10.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 11.6 11.5 8.5 1.8 66.3 65.8 7.4 10.0 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 11.6 11.7 11.6 1.8 67.9 67.2 6.2 8.5 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 2.4 1.7 8.8 1.8 63.4 64.4 -1.1 0.7 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 48 52 100 13.1 12.5 11.8 2.3 64.4 68.0 7.6 11.1 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 11.7 12.1 10.0 2.0 62.5 64.6 7.6 11.2 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 13.5 12.9 11.1 2.2 65.7 66.8 8.0 11.5 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 12.2 11.6 9.7 2.0 65.4 66.3 7.8 10.0 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 11.3 12.2 10.2 1.7 61.2 62.8 8.2 10.6 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 48 52 100 13.4 13.5 11.9 2.2 64.5 66.1 6.9 11.3 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 9.4 9.6 10.4 1.4 58.7 59.0 5.9 8.6 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 13.7 12.7 10.3 2.1 65.5 66.3 8.9 11.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 11.0 11.6 11.4 1.8 68.5 67.0 5.9 8.4 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 11.5 11.4 9.2 1.8 61.3 62.9 7.3 11.1 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 11.7 12.6 12.1 2.0 67.2 68.1 6.7 8.5 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 5.9 5.9 6.7 1.3 58.9 60.5 4.2 5.5 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 48 52 100 13.0 12.3 12.4 2.2 65.1 67.4 7.7 11.0 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 11.5 12.4 11.8 1.9 67.8 67.1 6.6 9.4 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 12.3 13.1 12.4 2.2 66.8 68.3 7.6 10.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 11.3 13.7 11.7 2.1 63.9 65.6 7.6 10.6 14.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 12.3 11.5 10.7 1.9 65.8 65.1 7.0 9.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 11.0 11.3 8.3 1.5 63.9 64.0 8.8 10.5 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 12.1 11.9 11.1 1.9 66.3 65.9 6.9 9.9 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 10.6 10.5 9.4 1.5 59.5 59.9 8.2 9.6 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 6.8 7.5 8.4 1.7 60.3 62.2 3.5 6.4 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 12.1 12.0 11.9 2.0 67.4 68.0 6.5 9.6 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------