***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 2.7 2.8 2.8 1.4 69.1 68.6 -0.1 1.5 2.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 2.2 1.9 2.4 1.0 66.5 64.3 -0.4 0.6 1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 4.4 4.7 2.8 1.3 69.1 68.3 1.7 3.0 4.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 -1.7 -1.7 0.2 1.5 68.6 69.0 -4.3 -3.3 -1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 1.3 1.7 0.8 1.7 71.7 71.1 -0.8 0.5 1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 0.6 0.7 -1.5 1.7 74.1 72.7 -1.5 -0.2 0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 2.3 2.2 2.4 1.0 64.6 64.1 -0.2 1.1 2.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 -4.3 -4.0 -1.4 1.8 73.7 73.2 -7.1 -5.8 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 2.4 3.1 1.0 1.6 73.3 71.9 -0.2 1.3 2.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 2.2 2.4 -0.6 1.7 72.8 71.8 0.0 1.1 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 2.0 2.1 0.2 1.8 72.5 73.0 -0.3 1.0 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 0.9 1.1 -0.5 1.8 73.3 73.6 -1.3 -0.1 0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 1.6 2.0 -0.8 1.6 69.9 71.5 -0.2 0.9 1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 2.7 2.8 0.6 1.4 71.1 68.2 0.5 1.5 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 2.3 2.3 1.2 1.4 69.0 69.0 0.3 1.5 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 2.6 2.7 -0.4 1.7 71.7 72.1 0.4 1.5 2.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 1.7 2.0 2.3 0.9 62.1 62.6 0.0 1.3 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 0.2 0.3 -1.3 1.6 72.5 70.9 -1.7 -0.7 0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 2.2 2.0 2.4 1.1 68.0 65.3 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 -2.2 -2.1 -3.0 1.6 73.3 71.1 -4.7 -3.5 -2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 2.2 2.0 2.2 1.5 70.8 70.2 -0.4 1.1 1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 1.2 1.5 2.2 0.9 63.5 63.3 -0.4 0.8 1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 1.9 1.6 2.1 1.1 68.9 66.6 -0.5 0.9 1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 1.8 1.7 0.6 1.5 71.0 70.0 -0.1 0.8 1.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.6 70.6 69.7 -0.1 1.0 1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 1.7 1.9 -1.1 1.7 73.7 73.0 -0.2 0.9 1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 2.5 2.4 2.4 1.5 69.5 68.8 -0.2 1.5 2.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 46 54 100 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.5 67.6 68.7 -1.4 -0.3 0.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 -0.5 -0.4 -2.0 1.6 71.8 70.7 -3.4 -2.1 -0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 2.7 2.5 2.5 1.1 67.6 65.5 0.1 1.5 2.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------