***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 4.3 3.6 3.9 1.3 66.7 64.4 1.4 2.3 3.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 3.8 3.6 3.5 0.9 63.2 61.0 1.2 2.4 3.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 6.0 5.0 3.7 1.0 64.7 63.6 3.5 4.3 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 1.2 -0.1 1.1 1.3 67.6 65.5 -3.0 -1.7 -0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 3.6 3.5 1.3 1.3 66.1 65.0 0.2 1.8 3.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 2.7 2.3 -0.9 1.3 65.2 64.6 -0.5 1.4 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.2 3.5 3.5 0.9 62.6 60.4 1.2 2.7 3.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -2.0 -3.5 -1.0 1.2 62.1 63.6 -7.0 -5.0 -3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 4.5 4.0 1.6 1.2 64.9 64.4 1.5 2.7 4.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 4.1 3.3 -0.1 1.1 62.0 63.5 1.5 2.2 4.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 4.1 4.1 0.5 1.3 65.2 65.4 1.3 2.0 4.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 3.0 2.7 -0.1 1.3 64.6 65.0 -0.3 1.5 2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 3.6 3.3 -0.5 1.2 65.5 64.1 1.0 2.0 3.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 4.6 3.4 1.4 0.9 60.3 61.7 2.2 3.2 3.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 4.3 4.8 2.1 1.2 67.9 64.4 1.3 2.5 4.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 4.8 4.6 0.1 1.3 65.2 65.4 1.2 3.0 4.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.0 2.9 3.3 0.7 60.3 59.0 1.6 2.4 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 2.1 1.4 -0.9 1.0 59.2 62.6 0.1 1.1 1.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 4.1 3.6 3.4 0.9 63.6 61.7 1.4 2.6 3.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -0.5 -1.1 -2.9 1.0 57.4 60.7 -3.1 -1.8 -0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 3.9 3.8 3.0 1.2 66.4 64.3 1.5 3.0 3.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 2.3 2.7 3.1 0.7 60.7 59.9 1.2 1.7 3.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 3.5 4.1 3.2 0.9 63.8 62.3 1.0 2.2 4.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 4.0 3.0 1.1 1.0 60.1 62.7 1.8 2.2 3.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 3.7 4.4 2.6 1.4 70.4 65.2 1.0 2.4 4.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 3.7 3.4 -0.7 1.1 64.9 63.7 0.4 2.2 3.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 4.0 3.7 3.4 1.4 68.1 64.5 1.5 2.7 3.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 3.1 3.1 1.2 1.3 67.1 65.1 -0.5 1.4 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 1.6 0.0 -1.5 1.0 59.5 62.1 -2.0 -0.5 0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 4.6 3.8 3.6 1.0 64.6 61.9 1.3 3.1 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------