***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 2.8 2.6 2.9 1.4 67.8 63.6 -0.1 1.3 2.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 2.7 1.6 2.6 1.2 65.4 62.2 -0.3 0.8 1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 4.9 4.6 3.0 1.4 67.5 64.4 1.5 3.0 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 -1.1 -0.4 0.1 1.5 66.7 63.5 -4.6 -4.0 -0.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 1.2 0.7 0.5 1.6 67.5 64.5 -0.8 -0.5 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 0.2 0.0 -1.7 1.5 64.2 63.2 -1.0 -0.6 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 2.9 2.4 2.6 1.1 66.3 61.5 -0.1 0.8 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -3.4 -3.5 -1.7 1.5 64.5 62.7 -7.4 -5.0 -3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 2.8 2.3 0.9 1.6 68.6 64.7 -0.2 1.0 2.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 2.1 2.2 -0.8 1.5 66.3 62.8 0.1 0.7 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 1.9 2.0 -0.2 1.6 69.5 64.8 -0.2 0.7 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 0.8 0.7 -0.8 1.6 67.7 64.6 -1.0 -0.6 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 1.5 1.5 -1.2 1.5 65.0 63.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 2.8 2.6 0.7 1.4 65.7 63.1 0.7 1.2 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 2.5 2.2 1.2 1.4 68.6 63.5 0.2 0.8 2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 2.7 2.0 -0.7 1.5 66.8 64.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 1.6 2.2 2.5 1.1 66.0 61.6 0.2 1.0 2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 0.5 0.0 -1.6 1.4 63.8 61.3 -1.6 -0.5 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 2.6 2.3 2.6 1.2 64.9 62.7 0.0 1.2 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -2.8 -2.1 -3.6 1.1 59.2 58.5 -4.7 -3.3 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 1.9 2.1 2.2 1.5 67.8 64.3 -0.4 0.5 1.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 1.4 1.7 2.3 1.1 65.9 61.8 -0.3 1.0 1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 2.0 1.4 2.5 1.3 64.9 63.3 -0.3 0.6 1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 1.9 1.7 0.5 1.4 65.8 63.1 -0.1 0.6 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.5 65.7 63.2 -0.2 0.7 1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 1.0 1.2 -1.4 1.5 65.5 63.7 0.3 0.6 1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 2.8 2.7 2.3 1.4 66.9 63.0 -0.3 1.1 2.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.4 66.4 63.0 -1.1 -0.3 0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -0.9 -0.3 -2.3 1.3 61.6 60.3 -3.4 -1.5 0.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 2.8 2.4 2.7 1.2 65.8 62.5 -0.1 1.0 2.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------