***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 1.4 2.2 2.2 1.6 66.5 64.6 -1.0 1.1 2.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 95 5 100 -0.1 0.2 1.5 0.8 54.7 55.2 -1.3 -0.2 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 2.1 3.4 2.3 1.5 63.1 62.7 0.5 1.9 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 94 6 100 -3.5 -2.5 -0.2 1.5 59.9 60.8 -5.1 -3.7 -1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 -0.6 0.8 1.0 2.0 66.5 67.2 -1.7 -0.8 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 -1.4 -0.2 -1.6 2.1 66.5 67.2 -2.5 -1.8 -0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 94 6 100 0.2 0.5 1.7 1.0 56.7 56.9 -1.3 0.0 0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 -4.7 -5.0 -1.4 2.4 68.2 68.8 -7.6 -5.9 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 0.5 1.4 0.6 1.9 65.2 65.9 -0.4 0.3 1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 0.5 1.6 -0.8 2.0 65.1 65.7 -0.8 0.2 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 49 51 100 1.2 1.7 0.4 2.1 67.1 68.0 -1.2 0.0 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 0.8 1.6 -0.2 2.4 70.2 70.3 -1.9 -1.1 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 0.4 1.5 -0.4 1.9 66.7 66.2 -1.4 0.2 1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 92 8 100 0.9 1.7 -0.1 1.4 59.3 59.4 -0.5 0.7 1.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 94 6 100 0.4 1.5 0.7 1.5 60.2 61.3 -1.1 0.2 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 48 52 100 1.9 2.6 -0.1 2.0 67.6 67.5 -0.9 0.4 2.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 95 5 100 0.3 0.4 1.4 0.6 51.8 51.8 -1.3 0.2 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 -1.2 -0.7 -1.3 2.0 64.8 65.5 -2.6 -1.4 -0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 0.3 0.6 1.4 0.9 55.6 56.2 -1.1 0.2 1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 -2.5 -2.4 -2.3 2.3 69.3 69.9 -6.6 -4.3 -2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 0.0 1.3 1.8 1.7 64.5 64.7 -0.9 -0.3 1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 93 7 100 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.6 52.5 52.1 -1.4 -0.1 1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 -0.2 0.1 1.1 1.0 58.1 57.8 -1.7 -0.4 1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 0.1 0.7 0.3 1.7 62.2 63.1 -1.2 -0.1 1.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 48 52 100 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.8 68.2 66.5 -1.2 -0.4 1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 1.4 1.8 -0.5 2.3 71.0 71.2 -1.5 -0.3 1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 0.2 1.7 2.0 1.8 67.2 65.5 -1.3 -0.2 1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 1.5 60.5 60.8 -3.0 -0.8 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 -1.5 -1.1 -2.3 2.1 64.9 65.5 -3.7 -1.7 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 0.4 1.0 1.8 1.1 59.7 59.0 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------