***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-25.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 39.8 90.7 48.0 45.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 31.3 24.6 39.2 89.0 44.7 44.9 19.3 26.2 31.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 23.8 29.7 39.5 88.6 43.9 43.9 21.5 35.6 46.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 26.5 29.6 41.4 82.5 40.2 39.2 27.2 36.6 49.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 23.1 30.5 43.7 87.0 43.1 42.8 29.1 33.2 45.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 19.6 25.5 48.2 82.9 37.1 38.7 22.2 29.9 42.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 28.6 24.8 39.7 90.2 47.5 46.1 17.9 25.7 32.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 50.2 54.6 47.8 88.3 43.3 43.1 48.6 64.1 77.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 22.3 27.3 46.0 92.4 47.1 46.5 21.6 29.8 38.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 28.1 34.6 49.5 92.4 47.5 46.0 25.6 34.8 47.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 21.3 25.7 42.3 87.0 43.8 43.2 21.8 30.0 40.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 25.5 30.1 40.9 84.4 38.7 41.2 26.4 35.0 37.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 23.8 31.3 45.1 82.8 36.6 39.5 29.9 37.0 42.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 33.2 43.6 48.0 88.1 42.8 42.9 37.6 49.0 66.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 16.7 18.7 34.2 73.6 35.3 34.3 16.7 39.4 51.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 23.9 28.2 42.5 82.6 38.3 39.6 26.0 30.7 41.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.5 24.7 38.6 91.7 50.1 47.5 18.3 24.7 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 39.4 32.6 54.3 91.8 44.1 45.6 27.2 35.0 45.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 35.0 30.7 39.0 87.9 42.4 43.4 26.5 33.0 36.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 28.5 29.3 61.8 87.7 40.9 42.0 26.6 36.8 42.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 23.5 32.1 42.4 92.4 49.4 46.7 18.6 33.9 42.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 33.3 27.6 39.7 91.9 48.6 46.9 21.6 27.8 35.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 23.9 30.6 40.0 86.3 41.2 41.5 23.5 33.2 37.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 51.8 42.0 47.0 89.2 43.4 44.1 35.9 45.2 60.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 33.0 22.0 47.4 91.4 47.5 45.3 16.8 24.3 35.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 19.6 22.6 43.2 78.1 32.7 35.9 22.7 29.2 37.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 34.0 26.4 45.6 92.3 47.4 46.3 15.6 29.0 36.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 17.0 19.9 37.8 77.6 38.8 36.6 17.4 29.5 39.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 66.6 53.8 57.7 90.4 43.7 44.7 40.2 59.1 68.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 32.5 27.3 39.0 88.3 43.7 44.3 17.4 29.6 36.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------