***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2012.-25.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 12.0 138.1 74.7 63.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 10.0 12.0 11.6 136.6 74.0 63.2 0.9 3.3 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 11.8 14.7 11.8 127.9 73.7 62.5 1.9 3.7 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.6 11.0 12.1 109.8 71.3 57.6 3.4 5.0 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 11.0 11.7 12.6 109.8 71.1 58.6 2.6 5.1 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.3 6.2 12.9 93.2 60.7 50.3 1.6 3.6 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 10.1 11.3 11.7 136.4 72.6 63.3 1.2 2.8 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.1 20.5 13.2 105.6 68.9 57.3 5.2 11.0 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 4.9 7.3 12.9 113.7 69.7 59.9 1.6 3.3 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 14.0 13.5 13.7 110.6 70.1 59.6 2.3 4.1 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 1.7 11.2 12.1 105.2 68.2 56.8 1.5 3.3 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.6 11.3 102.1 66.5 55.2 1.8 5.2 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.0 9.0 12.4 98.3 62.4 52.8 3.3 6.1 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 18.7 20.6 14.8 127.9 73.7 63.1 3.3 12.1 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.8 8.5 10.1 102.5 62.8 53.0 0.8 3.3 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.5 7.1 12.2 101.2 65.5 54.6 2.0 4.6 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 10.3 12.8 11.4 142.3 74.0 64.0 2.1 6.2 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.4 13.3 15.5 115.3 70.7 60.7 3.0 4.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.1 16.0 11.7 135.6 74.6 63.4 1.2 5.3 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.0 15.2 17.8 112.2 69.0 58.1 2.6 5.2 13.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 9.6 7.5 12.0 123.0 71.0 61.7 3.3 4.9 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 13.3 19.6 12.3 150.7 79.3 66.3 1.9 5.0 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 6.5 14.1 12.3 130.8 71.7 62.9 2.0 3.7 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 9.8 15.3 14.0 120.7 72.5 61.4 3.8 7.1 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 7.8 9.0 13.9 131.2 70.6 62.9 1.4 3.8 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.1 11.9 93.7 60.6 51.1 1.5 3.8 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 10.3 7.9 13.5 138.1 72.6 63.9 2.1 3.0 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.6 11.1 102.2 67.0 54.9 0.7 3.5 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.2 18.6 16.7 117.0 70.6 60.5 3.9 6.1 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 8.2 8.7 11.6 134.7 75.1 63.0 2.1 3.1 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------