***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2012.-18.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.8 89.6 58.2 48.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.0 2.5 12.0 92.9 54.7 49.0 0.7 2.3 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.1 5.1 11.8 90.5 58.1 48.2 2.8 4.3 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.6 9.0 11.8 77.4 52.4 43.8 3.9 8.3 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.7 12.8 85.3 52.2 46.1 3.6 6.5 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 1.7 4.0 13.8 80.8 46.9 41.9 1.8 4.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.3 3.2 12.1 92.8 54.0 49.0 0.7 2.0 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 10.3 15.6 14.0 90.1 53.0 46.4 9.3 15.3 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.4 7.0 13.6 92.7 54.5 48.6 3.9 6.3 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.9 8.4 14.4 93.1 54.2 47.8 4.7 7.6 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.5 9.0 12.2 87.4 53.9 46.5 2.8 7.2 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.1 6.6 11.9 84.9 51.5 45.4 3.7 6.3 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 1.7 4.2 13.0 82.0 47.6 43.9 3.5 4.3 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.5 6.2 13.8 87.5 54.3 46.9 4.0 5.1 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 0.9 1.9 9.9 71.7 50.5 41.8 0.1 1.9 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.4 5.2 12.3 82.4 50.5 44.3 3.5 5.0 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.6 2.9 12.0 96.3 54.8 51.3 0.4 2.4 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.9 8.1 15.8 92.8 55.0 47.6 3.6 7.3 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 0.9 3.0 11.9 92.1 56.5 48.8 1.1 2.0 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.8 8.2 19.1 95.2 54.1 47.2 3.7 7.9 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.1 6.9 12.8 93.5 56.8 49.3 3.0 6.4 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 3.6 3.4 12.7 100.6 57.7 52.6 0.3 1.8 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 1.1 3.0 11.9 88.6 56.0 47.4 0.7 2.3 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.9 8.1 13.5 89.6 54.5 47.3 4.1 7.7 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 1.9 5.3 13.8 87.7 54.4 47.5 1.9 4.0 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.1 2.8 12.5 78.1 46.3 43.6 1.4 3.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.6 3.4 13.2 89.9 55.3 48.6 1.5 3.3 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.9 10.7 74.8 52.3 43.0 1.0 3.8 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.5 12.8 17.0 93.4 53.5 47.6 8.1 12.2 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.1 3.4 11.9 91.2 55.6 48.1 0.7 2.5 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------